How Trump Wins This Election, and How He Doesn't - 8/14/2024

If Donald Trump wants to win in November, and I believe he does, here are a few simple things he should do, and a few he shouldn't.

Butler PA seems like a distant memory.

Do talk about the issues. Talk about the issues most important to voters in Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Be thinking about the undecided voters in these states as you choose your words. That's who your talking to. Nobody else matters at this juncture. Explain the policies that caused the problems, especially when they are Harris/Biden policies or policies similar to Tim Walz Minnesota policies. Explain how your policies are different and how the changes you will make will impact swing voters in swing states. Focus, Mr. President.

Stop with the personal attacks and childish insults. I doubt you have the discipline, but this has to change. The attacks may be red meat to your base, but they hurt with undecided voters in the swing states whose votes you need. You already have the votes from the base, Mr. Trump, just stop it. Stop with the personal insults and stop insulting fellow Republicans. If you don't like or respect them, wait till November 6th or Christmas or never to insult them. Every time you do you turn off and lose undecided voters in swing states. Discipline, Mr. President.

Do talk about your opponent's record. Be specific. What were the worst aspects of her work as a DA in California? What are the vulnerabilities of her record as a Senator? How will the types of policies she advocated and supported in her time as a Senator (her voting record) adversely impact undecided voters in swing states? Tell them, and tell it straight. Do point out that she is the point man in the coverup of Mr. Biden's cognitive problems. Be brutal, but be professional, Mr. President.

Stop with the unfocused and undisciplined 1-3/4 hour rambling rally speeches. Your base loves them? Your base will also love a more focused 45 minute litany of reasons to vote for you mixed with all the reasons to vote against her. Laser focus, Mr. President.

Do talk about American greatness: restoring our confidence in our institutions, our economy, manufacturing / products. Inspire us, Mr. President.

Don't re-litigate the bogus impeachments, lawfare, and Deep State efforts get you and undermine your agenda. Everyone knows these things, Mr. President.

Do talk about the importance of family, freedom, patriotism, religion, hard work, and commitment to achieving greatness, the backbone of making America great. Talk about the American spirit. Explain how deregulation can and will unleash the greatness of the American people. Make us proud to be Americans, Mr. President.

Do talk about the world on the brink of war: Iran, Gaza, Taipei, etc. Explain why it's important to emphasize and finance a military that is tooled to meet today's challenges. Tell us how unprepared and misaligned Kamala Harris is for these responsibilities. Make us confident in your leadership without sounding like a war monger, Mr. President.

Do talk about how valuable J.D. Vance is to your Administration. Make him proud and pump him up, Mr. President.

Don't forget to talk about how far left the Democrats have shifted in 4, 10, 20, and 50 years. Focus on leftist Governor Walz and his loony leftist record in Minnesota. Steer away from unnecessary insults and stick to devastating his terrible, socialist and un-American record.

Mr. Trump, stick to the issues. Stop with the insults. Minimize the rambling on and on and on. You'll win. I'm pretty sure you won't listen to me, and I am afraid for the result. You will lose.

Why Kamala Harris Doesn't Need to Address the Issues - 8/13/2024-2

Vice President Kamala Harris doesn't need to talk to the press about her position on issues or her record. It's not right, but she doesn't. There is a calculus, unacceptable to me and many of you, but undeniable.

Behold, the savior of the progressive left, Kamala Harris!

Why do I think she doesn't have to speak about the issues? It's complicated, but I'll try not to be in explaining it.

First of all, we're only talking about 7 or 8 states that matter. Deep red and deep blue states are already out of play. So all that matters are the so-called swing states: Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and maybe North Carolina and Virginia. Nobody else matters. Not me, not you, not nobody.

Within each of these states, all she needs is a simple majority of votes.

She already has all the far lefties, including the people who are far lefties who pretend to be moderate but don't want to tell us how far left they truly are.

She'll get a lot of White, suburban women, because killing babies, oops, I mean abortion rights, is the most important thing to them. More than the cost of gas, or food, or housing.

Then, add in all the never Trump GOP and independents. Even if they abstain or vote 3rd party, she's as well off as if they voted for her: one less vote she needs.

She automatically will get a vast majority of the Black vote and LGBTQ votes. It doesn't mean her policies are better for those groups, but they're autopilot voters, already in the bag for her.

Then there's the Union vote. Democrat. Check.

Add in the closet socialists and commies for good measure, and she's up in the 40's, percentage wise.

She only needs 3 or 4 percent more votes than that in 4-5 of these swing states, and she's in. Easy peasy, no talkie no press, no splainy no issues, no problem.

The people running her show know if she talks at length about issues, she is nothing except a liability to her own prospects. The press is totally in the bag for her and continually blowing fresh air into her sails, giving her a free pass on avoiding any forum where she might have to explain, or God forbid she might be challenged, on any issue or her record. Can't have people get to know her and realize they don't like her! Disaster.

So the ghost campaign, sans position on issues, senza questions on her record, will continue; in fact, may indeed win. The candidate who won no primaries, has no stated positions on issues, and doesn't do interviews can win. I'm starting to think there ain't shit we can do about it.

Biden's KKK Comments - 8/13/2024

Here's Joe Biden earlier in his term paying homage to Adolf Hitler.

This past weekend Joe Biden said: "Every other time the Ku Klux Klan's been involved they've worn hoods, so they're not identified.

"Under [Trump’s] presidency, they came out of those woods with no hoods, knowing they had an ally. That's how I read it.

"They knew they had an ally in the White House and he stepped up for them."

I'll limit my remarks to this: What the President said is fucking disgusting, it's a damned lie, and he's a piece of shit for saying it. I'm tired of phony racism allegations. Mr. President, fuck all the way off. Fuck yourself. Fuck you.

 

 

J.D. Vance "Absolutely Destroyed" On Sunday News Shows - 8/12/2024

Yesterday afternoon I started seeing social media post after social media post of how badly Senator J.D. Vance performed in a series of interviews on the Sunday morning news show circuit. He was "absolutely destroyed" according to one poster, and "didn't answer any substantive questions." On and on and on went the lambasting. Naturally, I went, found, and watched the interviews to determine for myself how it went.

J.D. Vance on the Sunday morning news circuit.

The people talking about how badly these interviews went are liars, stupid, or more likely, both. He was masterful throughout. All the interviewers slung their "gotcha" questions. He sidestepped the traps. There were no stupid answers, like "Have you been to the border?", "I haven't been to Europe." He was articulate, engaging, intelligent, pleasant, confident, and extremely well prepared. Here are links to each of the interviews, which took place on CBS, ABC, and CNN, all of which are all in on defeating Trump and electing the Democrat du jour, who at this time is Vice President Harris. I suggest you watch one or more of the three interviews in its entirety, and draw your own conclusion. Following are links to each of the three.

As a counterpoint, I also suggest you also watch Governor Walz, Vice President Harris' VP pick, or Vice President Harris herself in their most recent in depth interviews discussing their candidacy and see how they make their case for election in 2024. Sorry, I can't find any links.

On CBS Face the Nation

On ABC News This Week

On CNN with Dana Bash

Some closing thoughts, one liners if you don't mind:

I know we didn't find any Walz or Harris interviews. They don't know who they're going to tell us they are yet, so it's too soon to come on television. When they figure out who they are going to tell us that they are, maybe they will, but it will only be with a very friendly ally.

J.D. Vance made me proud in the way he handled and presented himself yesterday. Proud? Yeah, proud. I, too, once wore the rank of USMC Corporal. A guy like the J.D. Vance I saw yesterday is damned good company to keep. So much so that I messaged a Marine friend about this very thing, how proud I am of my service in light of how this Marine presented himself. Semper fi, Corporal J.D. Vance.

In a lot of ways, the way he interviewed reminded me of Governor Ron DeSantis, the best governor in the U.S. of A. That's high praise from me.

If I was Trump, I'd have Vance do three shows a week on the circuit from now till Election Day. 'Get on them shows and stay on them shows!' He was awesome, on message, and on point. Candidly, he handled himself better than Trump does in many ways, giving the same kind of answers that Trump might, but he did so congenially and pleasantly rather than combatively and antagonistically.

The guy who said J.D. Vance was "absolutely destroyed" on the morning shows is a douchebag. A real, dyed in the wool, no foolin' partisan douchebag of epic proportions.

My Election Fraud Concerns - 8/11/2024

The Pennsylvania Secretary of State has announced it is likely that we will NOT know the results of the 2024 Presidential Election from Pennsylvania on election night.

"We'll keep counting 'till the numbers are where we need them. It'll take time." Not what they said, but that's what I hear when they say it.

I don't like it. I don't like it at all. If someone in Pennsylvania were to try and cheat and steal the election using forged ballots, one very good thing to know would be, "how many do we need to produce?"

Official Pennsylvania Election Results Site

All the nonsense I've seen in the last 8 or 9 years tells me that there are people who will do ANYTHING to stop Trump from being elected. Don't come back at me with the nonsense that our election systems and processes are all on the up and up and beyond question or reproach. You think they are? Tell that to the 14 or 15 million Democrat voters who voted for Joe Biden in the 2024 Democratic Party Primaries. A group who thinks beating Trump is more important that respecting the will of 14 or 15,000,000 voters will also think beating Donald Trump is more important than respecting the will of 75, 80, or 90 million voters. 

It ought to be and easily could be done before Election Day. (It won't):

Require all mail in votes to be postmarked 5 business days BEFORE election day and received by poll closing time on Election Day. Remember how tax returns had to be postmarked by April 15th? There used to be a line of procrastinator's cars at the post office that evening, ensuring they dropped their returns got the postmark needed. It's pretty damned easy to send off a mail in ballot a week or more in advance. It's 5 days and you haven't decided yet? I guess you have to go to the polls on Tuesday. Suck it up. There is no reason mail in votes can't be counted on Monday of Election Day week, Election Day eve, so to speak. Late arriving (Tuesday) but properly postmarked votes can be counted along with in person votes on Tuesday.

Any late arriving ballot after the polls close should face an extremely high level of scrutiny before being tallied. Postmarks, signatures, and voter rolls have to be checked, double-checked, and triple checked. If counting is to continue in the days AFTER Election Day, extreme transparency in the counting of those votes is an absolute must. If you want to give the benefit of the doubt to mail in voters before the polls close on Tuesday, that's one thing. After the polls close on Tuesday, it is quite another.

When Pennsylvania announces it will still be counting after Election Day, it does not mean that state election officials plan to cheat. But it is a signal to cheaters where the door to election integrity is ajar. Why in the world should I trust these people? I've been awake for the last 9 years, not under a rock.

It Could Happen Sooner Than You Think - 8/10/2024

I have a hunch, I'll stop just short of a prediction, but no doubt this is what I expect to happen. Sometime around September 15th, maybe as late as October 15th, sooner than later in that window, President Joe Biden will resign for health reasons.

President Harris? It could happen sooner than you think.

He probably ought to have done so already based on his failed mental capacity, but that would have forced Vice President Harris to engage the press and American people meaningfully as President in ways that would expose who she is and what she is like, and they can't let that happen. A person who couldn't win over the voters in her own state in the 2020 Presidential Primary isn't going to win over America if she engages us forthrightly and directly. So for now, letting her hide in plain sight is her best way to victory moving forward.

But by mid-September, some of her honeymoon bounce in the polls may or will have receded a bit, and making her the first woman, and woman of color no less, to be President will energize her supporters.

I am not saying Joe will do this willingly, but he will do it. Heck, he didn't drop from the race willingly in the first place, but he did it. They'll pressure him about Hunter, or the 25th Amendment (again), or something else, and he'll do it to save face or his son's ass or maybe his own ass.

How likely my hunch is right? I'd say it's something more than a 50%, but less than a 75% likelihood. The nameless people who are really running our country in Joe Biden's cognitive absence will do anything to avoid a second Trump presidency.

Sep. 15-Oct. 15. President Harris. Mark it down.

Polls - 8/8/2024

Do you understand how poll sampling works?

A lot of polls are misleading because we don't know what the sample is or was. It makes a big difference. Without overcomplicating things, here's a quick explanation. It is more complicated than this.

Let's say a district has voter registration and or likely voter representation that is 35% Republican, 37% Democrat, and 28% Other or Independent. The district is said to be D+2. That's the basic breakdown, and a D+2 poll should (there IS error) accurately reflect the voters in that town, county, or state. But if you can find it, you might learn the poll says it is D+5. Essentially, the pollster talked to 3% more Democrats than what actually comprises the population. Now imagine the result of the poll has Harris at 50% and Trump at 48%. Can we make any inference based on the D+2 vs. D+5? I think we can.

Graphic showing samples.

The name of phenomena is "oversampling". Sometimes it's done to a large extent, as much as 5 or 6 points higher in one direction or the other, than the actual voter base. Why? To influence you, the electorate, plain and simple. If I think my candidate is losing, I will get discouraged and be less enthusiastic. My candidate's opponent's supporters, on the other hand, feel a freshening wind under their sails, and as a result, their enthusiasm is high. Enthusiasm and lack of enthusiasm are contagious.

It's more complicated than this. For now, the idea is to question the accuracy of the polls we see, and to question the motives of each pollster.

The next time you see a poll, whether your candidate is ahead in it or behind, remember, some polls are accurate, some aren't, sometimes purposefully so. Polls are commissioned by or conducted by someone, most likely someone with a vested income in an outcome. This makes it suspect, and it ought to be treated as such.