2021 Book Report, 2022 Forecast - 12-26-2021

 

 

 

I read more in 2021 than at any time in my previous 64 years. It's been rewarding on several levels. More than anything, I've displaced a good deal of the television in my life with books.

In the way of fiction, I finished reading all the Mitch Rapp books written by Vince Flynn. I thoroughly enjoyed each and every one. If you like good guys killing bad guys, this series is for you. Books in the series seem to run from 450 to 550 pages in length, but they're written with a style that allowed me to breeze through at a good clip. They're hard to put down, and I read several of his books in two days.

I love Lee Child's Jack Reacher series, and worked my way through most of it, having read quite a few in 2020, and then again likewise on 2021. I have three left for 2022, plus the new one, which I won't but until I can get it cheap at a used bookstore or thrift shop. Like Flynn's Rapp books, Reacher books are super easy to read and I blow through them in 2-3 days, despite their usual 500+ pages. Jack Reacher isn't an assassin like Mitch Rapp, but he brings a finality to many bad guys, which is always a nice part of his stuff.

I read three of Craig Johnston's Longmire series. I loved the television show, and the books are no exception. They're very enjoyable, Walt Longmire and the other characters in the books are the same as on the tv show, but the storylines are a little different and situationally the characters are different. Notably, Longmire's relationship with his deputy, Vic Moretti is different than as portrayed on tv. I love the west and especially rhe mountain west, and these stories, taking place in fictional Absaroka County, Wyoming, bring the location into every storyline, which I find a plus.

Speaking of the mountain west and fictional story lines, I read the fourth and last of Christine Catbo's murder mysteries, A Sharp Solitude. All Carbo's stories are centered in and around Glacier National Park in Montana. I really enjoy how she weaves the park into the stories in ways that make it integral. If you're looking for something different in murder mystery fiction, and you love the west like I do, I recommend Christine Carbo.

And lastly, on the fiction front, I started the Bosch series by Michael Connelly. So far I've read three of them, and I'm very much enjoying them. They're generally a little shorter than my other fiction reading, running 300 pages, plus or minus so far. Like Longmire, there is a tv show on Amaz0n that we really like. And like Longmire, the characters are the same, but the story lines are different, making it so the books aren't totally spoiled for having seen the tv program.

In 2022 I expect to finish the last of the Reacher series, and to continue with Longmire and Bosch books. I got a recommendation for an author I'm not familiar with, Ivan Doig, who writes fiction centered in the mountain west, Montana primarily, I think. I hope I enjoy his stuff, but hard to say till I try one. 

I haven't decided on a goal for 2022. The 25,000+ pages and 60 books in 2021 is probably a record that will stand for the coming year. Maybe 48 books and/or 20,000 pages will be a good goal for this year, I'm not sure. I may go lower and increase my goal as I go, which is what I did this year. I have some really long and heavy non-fiction on my shelf, a couple of them 1000+ pages unto themselves. I may try to spread those out, 100 or 200 pages at a time, then set them aside and read something else, lighter non-fiction or some fiction in between.

As was the case and has been my primary interest in non-fiction, I plan to read several books about Native Americans and the west. I also want to learn more about Theodore Roosevelt, Thomas Jefferson, Harry Truman, and Andrew Jackson. I have biographies for the last three, and have something in mind for Roosevelt, even as it's not on my shelf at this time.

Lastly, there are several books I have earmarked to re-read. Goodbye Darkness by Manchester, for sure is one of them. I may also read Empire of Shadows, by George Black, which is an excellent study of the history of Yellowstone National Park and the surrounding area. There are so many new books to read, but I think one or two re-reads are in order. I may re-read some James Michener, too. He's always been a favorite. I have a copy of his Texas on my shelf. It's well over 40 years sonce I read it, and perhaps it's time to dust it off and give it another go. One reading related goal I have for 2022 is to study the geography and history of Wyoming and Montana and become well acquainted with all the rivers, mountain ranges, parks, historical landmarks of my interest, and Native American reservations and important lands in Native American history in those western states.

I'm on Goodreads, which is where I log and track my reading progress. If you're on there, find me,

Matty P on Goodreads

What are you gonna read in 2022?

Do the Math - 12-21-2021

Omicron

A quick hitter this morning. There won't be a test.

Omicron is less deadly and less serious illnesses. Omicron is far more contagious. Omicron is here. Some hypothetical numbers, for illustration... here's why I'm paying attention:

First of all, Omicron is thought to be less virulent, meaning "less deadly" and "less serious illnesses". That says LESS, it does not say NOT or NONE. Let's assume Delta and previous mutations were/are 5 times more "serious", meaning 5 times as many of the infected people got seriously ill or died from than than will from Omicron. This means on a per person basis, a person who is infected by Omicron is 0.2 times as likely to get seriously ill or die than a person with the others. (THIS IS A HYPOTHETICAL PERCENTAGE/NUMBER!)

Omicron is far more contagious than the previous mutations. Let's say that it is 10 times more transmissible. (THIS IS A HYPOTHETICAL PERCENTAGE/NUMBER!) If one person with the old versions would infect 2 others, then 10 times that means one person would infect 20 people with Omicron.

0.2 (less deadly) x 10 (more contagious) = 2 (times more worrisome!)

I am less worried about my personal chances with Omicron if I catch it than before. But I am aware my chances to catch it are higher AND that the net effect on our population at large may be very bad.

If it is the same here as it was in Europe, the number of Omicron infections in the US will double every 3 or so days. According to this morning's Wall Street Journal, Omicron is already the most common variant in the US found in newly infected people. And it's only been here a couple of weeks or so!

It's still serious. I will be vigilant. I don't know that we can stop this variant. In the UK it has roared through the population very quickly. It is likely to do the same here. On the other hand, if Omicron leaves us with natural immunity from other variants, it may be a fast path to herd immunity. I'd say in that case, "bring it on", but for the people who invariably will become seriously ill or worse, that's not a wish I'd wish on anyone.

"It's just a cold." Okay, I get your point, but I don't recall ever in my life hearing that someone died of a cold. I know several who died from the CCP Virus. This new shit is less virulent but more contagious. Whether it's .1 times less deadly or .5 times, and if it's 3 times more contagious or if it's 10 times more contagious remains to be seen. I'm going to be careful. I'm taking personal responsibility. My body. My choice.

Dr. John Campbell Covid-19 Coverage 12-20-2021

Dr. John Campbell has become my most trusted source of info on the CCP Virus.

If you're not following and listening to Dr. John Campbell and you're interested in reasonable and apolitical explanations and data about the virus, I recommend you check his channel occasionally. I believe that Campbell is a nurse with a Phd. His explanations are easy to understand, and while he is focused on the United Kingdom and Europe, he always explains how he expects what he's seeing there to translate to the USA. Yesterday I listened to this talk about Omicron. From my aging memory, the key things I took away were:

Omicron is more likely replicate itself more in the bronchial passages, where other mutations of the virus multiply lower in the lung. The result is more bronchitis than the pneumonia common with previous mutations, and because this one is in bronchial passages, this one is more communicable from just normal breathing.

Omicron is more contagious than the previous mutations, but less virulent. So you are more likely to catch it, but it is not as serious for most people. However, this one is spreading to so many more people that the net result in raw numbers of people with serious health issues as a result may be even higher, despite being less dangerous on an infected person by person basis. I guess the fact that it's less dangerous will be small consolation to the people who do get seriously ill from it or worse.

Omicron is spreading so fast in the UK he thinks they may reach herd immunity in a relatively short period of time. The split in the UK now if 60/40 Omicron vs. previous mutations, with the Omicron number rising rapidly.

Germany has ordered millions and millions of Omicron specific vaccinations. I don't know if they even exist yet. Either this was a pre-order or they exist. Campbell either didn't say or I didn't catch it.

What they are seeing there with Omicron we are likely to see in the US in the next month or two. I wonder if this high number of high profile people (athletes and politicians) testing positive is a result of the new Omicron variation? I don't know.

Campbell's videos give these type explanations daily. He gives good news and bad. I have heard him agree with government officials and also draw different conclusions, although he is diplomatic when he differs so as to not offend the YouTube and other social media censors who would presume themselves more knowledgeable and qualified than he to understand and explain CCP Virus issues. I am sure some of you will disagree with him at times because he differs or agrees with government officials. You're entitled to your opinion. I recommend you listen to Campbell and his explanations on their own merit, without the prejudice of those agreements or disagreements.

I highly recommend those of you who want unbiased and thorough explanations of what goes on with the virus, that you watch Dr. Campbell on a fairly regular basis. Here's a link to his YouTube page: Campbell's channel.

CCP Virus Divisiveness and Incoherence 12-17-2021

 

They're both absolutely sure they're right, and even more importantly, both are certain the other guy is wrong. Dead wrong.

Most of us are out to lunch when it comes to discussing this virus, how it's being dealt with, just about everything about it. I want to try to boil some things down and parse them out just a bit. I am not a virologist, nor am I an advanced mathematician. But I have struggled, tried very hard to understand this whole virus thing. I've seen the points you and many others have made on social media. Here are some thoughts on some of the most hotly debated and contested issues:

"Masks work!" "No, masks don't work!"

Do masks work for Covid, which I prefer to call the Communist Chinese Party Virus (CCP Virus)? Well for starters, what do you mean by work? A lot of people think masks working means, "If I wear a mask, will the mask work and ensure that I don't get sick?" Then the next person is saying, "If you wear a mask when you're around me, will the mask work and ensure that you won't get me sick?" And then you've got some thinking if we all wear masks, will the masks work and ensure none of us gets sick?" Well, I don't believe masks are that fully effective. In the context of these questions, work and don't work are sort of an absolute, a guarantee. The person who tells you, I'm not wearing a mask because they don't work, is telling you the mask won't guarantee that nobody can catch the CCP Virus.

Well, mask wearing doesn't guarantee that nobody will catch it. You, me, everybody wearing masks will to a debatable extent reduce transmission, but NOT eliminate transmission. The type of mask, if the masks are worn properly, and whether or not the masks are fresh/clean, i.e. changed out regularly at "proper" intervals, will also factor into efficacy. It's a numbers game. A guy with the virus enters a closed space with 100 people, theoretically/hypothetically, and nobody has on a mask, and they interact all day, or for some certain amount of time, let's say 40 of the 100 will catch it. If that guy wears a proper mask, maybe 40 is reduced to 30 or 20. And if everyone wears a proper mask, maybe the number is reduced further to 5 or 10 or something. The definition of the mask working, if you look at it as a fail safe means of protecting yourself, probably isn't that if I use it I still have a 5-10% chance to catch it. "I've still got a 5-10% chance to catch it? The damned mask don't work, I ain't wearing one!" All they are really doing in advocating masks is trying to reduce transmission. After much thought, I think a much better discussion about masks is "Do masks help," rather than, "Do masks work?" If a medicine works we either don't get sick or we get better. If it helps, we may still be sick but not as severe. Which leads me to the next things, vaccines and boosters. One of the biggest blunders officials made when it came to the mask mandate strategy was initially to sell it as only necessary until we have a vaccine. That was a major fuck up there, no doubt about it.

The vaccines - what to trust, or not trust? I truthfully can't say I know.

The vaccines are so effective you can still catch and transmit the CCP Virus after you've had the jabs. The vaccines are so effective that you probably better still wear a mask indoors. The vaccine is effective, but it wears off over time. The vaccine is effective, but we're not sure about the Omicron mutation, or whatever other mutants may come along. You cannot enter here without proof of vaccination. You cannot work here if you haven't been vaccinated. You cannot attend classes here unless you've been vaccinated. You cannot travel unless you've been vaccinated. Maybe, even after you've had a booster, you'll have to get a new vaccination for Omicron or other mutations that come along. Due to Omicron, in person classes are cancelled, even for the vaccinated. Ai yai yai yai yai!

I've come to my own conclusion: similar to the masks, they're not guaranteeing anybody anything with the vaccines. It's another numbers game. If nobody gets a jab, then depending on something called the "R Value" or "R Number", a certain number of people will catch it and transmit it to the next person, and so on and so on. Vaccinated people can still catch and transmit, but whatever that R Value is, it is reduced by some too complicated to explain percentage. So instead of telling us we're 25%, 50%, 75% less likely to catch and transmit if we're vaccinated, they just urge and mandate and chastise the non-compliers. And the non-compliers, rightly so, in my opinion, are calling bullshit. Why? Because if I can still catch and transmit, then the vaccine don't work. We should be talking about how much the vaccines can help, but instead we are arguing whether they work or don't work, which to most people means guarantees to us we won't get sick.

What's worse is that the vaccines wear off. So two weeks after you get it it's some percent effective, let's say 90%, but in 6 months that might be 50% or 60%. Then you need a booster, which they think will work for Omicron. I'm glad they think so. Scientists. Sheesh.

Scientists: they're learning as they go. Hard to know who to trust.

The bottom line is while scientists surely are looking for a 100% effective cure and for 100% effective preventive medicines and strategies, that in the meantime their strategy is more of a numbers game. This is where I know I'm out of my depth, but I'm going into the weeds a bit to make a point. Each mutation has a different "R Value". I read that anything higher than a "1" is bad. I watched a video earlier form Dr. John Campbell (Do yourselves a favor and find him on YouTube and watch him.).  He said the Omicron has an R Value in England of 3 or 4. That is alarmingly high. Remember they told us the Delta variant was more transmissible than the original, and now this is even more so. Omicron, on the other hand, may be less deadly and cause less serious illness.

So the scientists are making complex mathematical models. They have to factor in which variants of the virus are circulating, and there is more than one, more than two even. Then they look at social distancing, mask wearing, both mask compliance and quality of mask wearing, vaccines... what percentage has had them, which of the three Pfizer, Moderna, and J&J did people get or NOT get, how many have had a booster, how long has it been since the vaccine or booster was administered, etc. They have to factor in natural immunity: who had it, how long ago, what antibodies do they still have, how long do those last? See, while they DON'T have a cure, a medicine or a strategy that will work in the traditional sense to keep us all well and eradicate the virus, they instead are looking at strategies and scenarios to try to find a magic number that will reduce or make the virus manageable, or hopefully even containable.

They HOPE they find a magic number for vaccination, and mask compliance, along with natural immunity to get in front of this stuff. So far they haven't. Our President ran saying the former President didn't have a plan, but he did. Bullshit. This stuff is more widespread now than before, more people died this year than last, too. Well if he's got a plan, it isn't working. There's that word again. I said working. Because to me working means no more people getting sick, no more virus. Forget that. Shit, Joe's plan isn't even helping. More people died than last year, Joe. Dumbass.

The next time you want to argue for mandatory closures, restrictions on travel, work, dining, etc., the next time you want vaccine mandates and mask mandates and someone objects, don't try to tell them "Because they work." Bullshit. If the vaccine works, tell me why the vaccinated are so worried about being near unvaccinated people. Tell me why vaccinated people are sill wearing masks. They're doing so because it doesn't work.

We should be having honest discussions about what helps. Masks don't work, but do they help? How much do they help? What about vaccine? How does it help? But no. We're arguing works vs. don't work, and none of us has a real handle in the mechanics and mathematics of help... What helps or don't help and how much? Our leaders have done a shitty job selling their strategies. Us regular people? We'd rather argue about shit working or not working than to understand what helps and what don't and how much so we can dialogue productively.

What do I know? I don't work no more, neither, I'm retired. I'm also vaccinated and boostered. My decision.