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Tuesday, July 14, 2020

7/14/2020 Latest Testing Numbers and Thoughts

I haven't posted a new update in a few days. Charlotte County, Florida, has 54 new CCP Virus cases today, with 0 new deaths from the virus. The totals for the last week (I am NOT sure if that's the most recent 7 calendar days or the most recent Sunday to Saturday type 7 days) is 270 new cases and 1 new death.
 
 

Down here in Florida they are testing like mad. We are approaching 3 million tests. In my county alone, there have been 15984 tests, total, and 1212 positives (7.9%), of which 79 have passed away (6.5% of positives). I have been monitoring these numbers pretty regularly, and I believe the actual percentage of fatalities compared to positives for June is quite a bit lower than the 6.5% overall number, and that July will be lower still, in the less than 1% range, something closer to .4% or even lower.

Why? Well, first off, the virus is hitting younger people now. Secondly, the hospitals are doing a much better job treating patients, including use of controversial medicines and NOT using ventilators in the same manner they did early on which was a disaster of epic proportions. Lastly, the data is still awful, but the data in March, April, and May was much worse, as testing lagged and the snapshot was so small it was extremely misleading.
 
 

Yes, there are a LOT of positive tests coming back now, as they are testing an incredible number of people. But if the mortality rate stays at something below 1/2 of 1% (or even lower), at what point do we shift attention to identifying and protecting vulnerable people and allow others to return to normal? I don't know the precise answer, but the most disturbing aspect of the opinions I've seen posted on it is that they fall out along political lines with near 100% uniformity. That tells me that nearly everyone in both the left and right echo chambers are making their minds up based on partial information, and rejecting anything that challenges their echo chamber orthodoxies. Not healthy.

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