Total Pageviews

Tuesday, August 25, 2020

8/25/2020 Lies, Damned lies, and Statistics

I have seen seemingly reasonable numbers posted on social media, but that was a couple of days ago and I can't find the post I saw them on to verify them from their source. Internet searches aren't helping me track the numbers down, either, so I'll just say I'm not sure the numbers are right, but I think the rest of my concern is, regardless. What I saw posted stated that the average age of all the persons in the US who have died from CCP Virus is 78, and that the average life expectancy of all persons in the US is also 78.

First of all, I don't know for sure the numbers in either case are correct. But presuming they are, as they're not crazy at first glance, they're just one of those things that make me go... "Hmmmm?"

On their face those numbers DO NOT mean that CCP Virus is NOT deadly. But those numbers do say it's no more or LESS deadly than the net sum of all the other deadly things we encounter in the world, which would include influenza, cancer, accidents, and the interesting euphemism we often call 'natural causes' or 'old age', etc.

Does that mean that I think we should be ignoring the virus? No. We shouldn't ignore it, just as we should be reducing accidental deaths where and how we can, and working to find cures for cancer, heart disease, etc. But in the context of comparison, of all the other communicable diseases that contribute to an average age of death of 78 years old, why is it that CCP Virus is the only one that requires indefinite shutdowns, decimation of small businesses, the travel industry, working from home, etc? I don't think there's a good answer to that question. And by 'good answer', I don't mean an acceptable answer, I mean an accurate answer. The reason why is that I don't think the numbers we have been provided are worth their weight in shit. They're inaccurate as hell.

Why are the numbers so inaccurate? Because in the first part of the pandemic, in order to support healthcare providers, well-intentioned federal money was allocated to finance healthcare for CCP Virus patients on a per case basis. And that federal money incentivized healthcare providers to make the virus part of, in many cases even presumed to have been a part of as many diagnoses as possible. "Flu-like symptoms?" "Yes." "Add him to the Covid List. RIP." Cha-Ching! $$$$$ Cha-ching, cha-ching, cha-ching! Again and again. If you ask me, cha-ching $$$$$ is the reason our numbers aren't worth their weight in shit.

We can't have an honest discussion or disagreement about this damned virus because we do not have accurate numbers. It's real, it kills people, it has to be taken seriously. But when it's time to say "Enough is enough" as it pertains to small business closures, church closures, school closures, sporting and political event closures (except riots, which are an exempted activity), how in the hell can we have intelligent dialogue about how to proceed without accurate facts, info, and data? Spoiler alert: we can't. Until we know the real numbers, we can't.

1 comment:

  1. The numbr could be skewed ikn any number of directions......people who test positive who go home, not heard of again... but, for real, you are right as rain. The problem is in how new this sucker is...Honestly, getting a hold of one tiny fragment of a way to prevent infection - for yourself or others - was a vital discovery. It was a desperate time, especially as NYC's numbers went skyward. We are finding our way, doing the best we can at the cientific end. These are the same breed as sent us to the Moon safely and developed the Salk Vccine. We basically all started at the same time - Science and People. Constant forgiveness is necessary in a stressful pandemic - in all directions. I appreciate how hard you worked on that and I generally feel the same.

    ReplyDelete