11/4/2020 The GOP and Me, What I Am, Am Not, and What They Ain't, Neither

 

I know, I know. It ain't over till it's over. I get it. But whether Trump wins or loses, I'm going to go in a different direction, and spell out my beefs with the GOP before and during the Trump Presidency and his two presidential campaigns.

1) The GOP Senate is a bunch of weak sauce, useless, establishment good ol' boys. During SpyGate, Mueller, the impeachment, and now into the Trump re-election campaign, other than approving judges, they've been nothing more than a little hot air that's far too weak to call a warm breeze. How many times did we see a strong letter but no follow through? Lindsay Graham's been getting to the bottom of all this corruption for years and hasn't gotten to the bottom of jack shit. During SpyGate and later during the impeachment, I wrote several letters to my senator from Florida, Marco Rubio. It was a total waste of my time and effort. Rubio did eventually respond to me, but with cookie cutter form letter responses that made it clear to me nobody who mattered had read or even taken my concerns seriously. Again, judges aside, the Senate has been a huge disappointment and has done very little to help Trump make America great.

2) Over the years Democrats have initiated a number of changes to increase or gain an advantage at the polls: one example was the 1993 "Motor Voter" law, which required states to offer voter registration when citizens apply for a driver's license. In recent years there has been a shift toward both early voting, and this year especially, mail-in voting. And famously in California in 2018, was legislation allowing "ballot harvesting" in California. Whether it was Motor Voter, early, mail-in, or harvesting ballots, there is one common element. Republicans spent all their time and effort resisting and fighting against such initiatives, when they ought/could have been leveraging them to their own advantage. Democrats went door to door in California and collected enough ballots after Election Day to flip several seats in the House of Representatives? How many ballots did the GOP harvest? None. They stood on the sidelines complaining about it, rather than getting their own asses out to collect as many of their own as they could. 

Motor Voter? Instead of fighting it, why didn't the GOP push to expand it: you can check a box on your W-4 when you get a new job to be registered as a voter.  Or when you pay your property tax, get a concealed carry permit, file a change of address at the post office, etc. Play the same damned game and play to win.

This year, at least early on, the GOP resisted mail-in voting, ostensibly due to fears of voter fraud. Sort of late in the game, at least here in Florida, they seem to have realized they were getting terribly behind the voting curve and changed to encourage us to get and use an absentee ballot, but their earlier resonant message that had traction and overrode the new advice, was to vote in person on election day. Democrats cultivated many votes by otherwise less than likely voters by making voting easier for them. I realize that there was, and still is, great concern of ballot tampering and fraud and that's why the GOP at first resisted mail in. A more effective strategy would have been to fully embrace mail in voting and to take decisive actions to add safeguards where possible AND to exponentially increase the number of GOP votes mailed in through a grassroots campaign to get mail in ballots into GOP and independents who lean to the GOP's hands sent back in to be counted. I am not advocating, "if you can't beat 'em, join 'em", I am advocating, "beat them at their own game." I haven't seen that from the GOP, who seem to be more than satisfied to stand on the sidelines pointing at and complaining about what Democrats are doing.

3) The GOP, prior to Trump, talked about budget deficits and smaller government during election and re-election campaigns, but rarely executed plans and programs to follow through on those things once in office. All talk and no action is the way I see it.

4) The GOP has done a shitty job of making outreach to black and other minority communities. Trump is the first one I can remember in my lifetime who sincerely reached out and said, "I want to be the guy who changes black lives for the better." And he, unlike most of the GOP, made significant efforts to reach out to African-American leaders and the African-American community. The things he tried to accomplish with and for the black community were despite being unfairly and wrongly and incessantly portrayed as a racist, incredible.

5) This paragraph is for "all the other stuff": GOP = military industrial complex and endless wars. I'm for a strong military, but I object to endless wars. Free trade = the total sellout of American working class people of ALL races. These and any number of other GOP norms, Donald Trump tried to change the GOP's alignment. Most of the GOP in the Senate, House, and throughout the Executive bureaucracy resisted and thwarted Trump at every turn.

Day after day after day during the Trump presidency, the rest of the GOP proved to me that I may be a Republican, but I am NOT their kind of Republican. I'm a Trumplican, a new kind of Republican who, like Trump, sees the failings and shortcomings of the GOP before, during, and after the Trump presidency and who WILL NOT support a return to GOP ways of the last 30 years. Reaganism, with President Reagan's famous working relationship with Democratic Speaker of the House Tip O'Neil? Yes, although in today's environment, Nancy Pelosi is surely no Tip O'Neil and surely demonstrates that she and they, the Democrats, need a critically introspective look and to change just as I advocate here that the Republicans do, too. And I do not see myself ever abandoning "Trumpism", either. Just as I still feel a connection to certain aspects of Reaganism, so too do I see myself clinging to aspects you may or may not like about Trumpism: rejection of political correctness, willingness to take the heat to do the things we're saying we'll do, unlike traditional politician's all talk and no action. And most of all, Trumpism to me means a love of the United States of America and of ALL Americans, putting America and America first in all things.

One final note: I'm here complaining about the GOP. I think there is much the GOP, elected and bureaucrat alike, could have done to make the Trump presidency even more successful. But let there be no doubt, I am NOT a Democrat. I can't think of a single issue which their views are more in line with my own than the GOP's are. I only add this note because if you read this and it makes you think, "Gee, Matty, there's a place for you in the Democratic Party," you're out of your fucking mind.

11/2/2020 Why I Voted for Trump, and Why You Should, Too.

 I voted early on in the General Election this year. And I voted for Donald Trump. My vote was as much against the globalist, establishment, entrenched, corrupt, career politician class that characterizes most of the elected and un-elected bureaucrats in our Washington Federal Government and most of our state capitals, too. Specifically, here's why I voted for Trump:

Judges. I believe our founders had it right when they established three branches of government, Executive, Legislative, and Judicial. We have seen the Legislative Branch continuously and repeatedly fail to do its job and allow the President through Executive Order and Judicial via judicial fiat do their jobs for them. Trump has nominated the kind of judges we need, judges who will push things back to the legislature where they belong.

Economy. Trump has cut red tape and taxes. His economic policies are good for EVERYBODY. Wealthy people. Working stiffs. Retirees like me. The saying, "an incoming tide raises all boats in the harbor together" is exactly right as it relates to the Trump economy. Before the pandemic just about everybody was doing better then ever before. Women, black, Hispanic, Asian, whites, we were ALL doing better than ever.

Trade. Closely related to Economy, above, trade is definitely on my list. Previous administrations, from both parties, have sold American workers out again and again. Trump has tried hard against tremendous resistance to make sure our trade deals are in the best interest of our workers and farmers and tried to push us back to a production economy rather than a service economy. The worst example of the pre-Trump trade problem was China, to whom we allowed ourselves to be dependent for food, technology, medical, and military supplies and goods. Unacceptable.

Energy independence. Whose fucking bright idea was it to allow foreign countries to control our energy markets? Nope. Trump was 100% right to free US energy companies from many of the shackles previous administrations had weighed it down with.

Ending endless wars. Nearly 20 years in, and with no definable plan for victory, or success even, Trump is pulling us from places like Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan. Finally. Has he solved the problems there? No. Are they solvable by US military force? No. So there.

Foreign policy. The US State Dept and diplomatic corps seems to me to be a perfect example of "because that's how we've always done things". Trump has challenged diplomatic norms. No new wars, and peace deals in the Middle East the Bushes, Clintons, and Obama nor Biden would have ever even attempted. Bravo.

Right to bear arms, 2A. Just yesterday Joe was tweeting about gun controls he'd put in place. He didn't say shit about taking guns from bad guys, only about "common sense" reforms to disarm law abiding citizens and reduce our chances to defend ourselves. Joe and his buddies on the left plan to infringe on 2A and impose taxes on gun ownership. Which other of our constitutional rights is taxed? He wants to ban online gun and ammunition sales, too. Nope. Not for me. Let me know your plan to disarm and control bad guys before you try to disarm us good guys.

Law and Order. Antifa. BLM. Riots. Destruction. Big liberal cities. Coming to the rest of the USA via a Biden presidency where the same liberal mindset is imposed from Washington? No.

Racism and racial equality. For all the talk about us Trump supporters being the bad people, it seems to me only one party is obsessed with race and it ain't us. Blaming white people as a group for anything is no different than blaming black people or gay people or anyone else. I reject it. And a Biden or Harris presidency would surely push more of the same, and push it hard. No.

Deep State corruption and the coup d'état. The bastards that tried to steal and overturn the election and undermine the President still haven't been brought to justice. The swamp isn't nearly drained and it needs to be. I hope President Trump, win or lose, fires Wray and Halspel on Wednesday.

Corona virus. He did a better job than he got credit for. Perfect? No. But blaming him for it or for deaths is fucking ridiculous. I can't imagine the economic devastation if a Democrat was in the Oval Office this past year, and you can't convince me we'd be any better off than we are now. I'm sure some are convinced I'm wrong on that. I say it's unprovable.

Joe Biden. He's mentally failing and he's corrupt.

Kamala Harris. She's an extreme liberal and Joe is just a Trojan horse candidate to get her installed as President. No fucking way.

Yes, Donald J Trump is and can be an asshole. For all the reasons above, and maybe some others my brain isn't conjuring on Election Day eve, he's my choice, and he's the right one for our country. If you haven't already, vote for Trump for President of the United States tomorrow. We have a lot riding on it, as in EVERYTHING.

10/30/2020 - 1 SCOTUS and Election Law Rulings

It seems to me a lot of people don't understand the US Supreme Court's (SCOTUS) role in our judicial system. I see complaints about inconsistent decisions being made by SCOTUS. "They ruled this way in Wisconsin, but that way in North Carolina?" Now, I'm no legal scholar, but I think this short explanation is where it's at. I'll address Justice Amy Coney Barrett not participating in some of these cases as an aside at the end.

SCOTUS will rule on cases regarding elections in states which come before it on two basis:

First, is what the state is doing in conformity to the U.S. Constitution? If what a state is doing isn't contrary to the Constitution, then that test is passed. The court might, on the other hand, strike down some action by some state if that action is unconstitutional, for example, denying persons the right to vote based on race, religion, or gender.

Second, if SCOTUS finds the action to be constitutional, then they can look and see if what the state is or is not doing is following the state's own constitution. It could be that a Secretary of State (or whichever other state official oversees elections) is doing something clearly contrary to state election law, or more commonly, that a judge has overstepped his or her authority, and is ordering state officials to act in a way that is not in compliance with the state's laws or constitution.

We only have one U.S. Constitution, but we have 50 different states, each with its own Constitution, and each with its own election laws. Those documents are not standardized between the different states. So something one state does might be perfectly legal, and the next one may try to carry on in exactly the same manner, but in the second case, it conflicts with the state's laws. SCOTUS would find the first acceptable and exactly the same issue unacceptable in the second. And because the state's guidance documents differ, you might be happy about how they ruled in North Carolina, but perturbed about the Wisconsin ruling, or vice versa. Blame the state's Constitutions and their dissimilar election laws, not SCOTUS.

Now, as for Justice Barrett. I've seen some frustration that in two election law cases currently being heard by SCOTUS, that she has recused herself. Some are glad to hear that, others, likely Trump supporters, are unhappy. It's not her job to make Trump supporters happy and or to rule in Trump's favor on a damned thing. She's there to do her job and to do it right. As near as I can tell, the cases in question were already underway and Justice Barrett couldn't play catch-up and do justice any service by rushing into these cases without all the facts. We should be glad, not mad, that she is placing doing her job with integrity and thoroughly above rushing in because a case has dire political implications.

And, finally, what the heck, people? No, all rulings don't go our way. That doesn't necessarily make Justices who don't rule the way we like the bad guy. It may mean they've determined some law or act is unconstitutional or contrary to state law. Be mad at bad laws and bad election officials. More often than not, that's where the problem lies.

10/30/2020 My Wall Street Journal Home Subscription - Cancel It

Once upon a time I was happy to be able to get the Wall Street Journal delivered to my home. Local papers had gutted their staffs and picked up more and more syndicated material, with less and less locally written, local news. 

 In recent years I saw the Louisville Courier Journal implode, the quality of every page of the rag these days is an embarrassment under Gannett's ownership. Editorial bias is a given with most print papers, and the C-J, as Louisvillians often refer to it, is no exception. I could live with that, and did for a long time. But over time the C-J let writer after writer go, and eventually the paper was nothing more than a political editorial in a hollow shell. For a while we kept the C-J just for the coupons in the Sunday edition. But even those, over time, we found weren't often for the products we use, and wound up pretty useless to us. I ditched the C-J for good 8 or 9 years ago, before we moved to Florida.

I tried the USA Today for a while, before we moved. Other than the free copy the give away in a hotel lobby, the USA Today is a truly worthless, shallow, empty comic book pretending to be a newspaper. In the long list of things that are "not worth the money", USA Today is prominent. I do like the puzzles, and the TV section was helpful in a hotel when I was on a trip to see what was on to kill an evening.

When we moved to Florida, for the first year or so we were here we took the Charlotte Sun. Everything I said about the C-J is also true of the Sun except the ownership. If anything, the Sun is inferior to the C-J, and that's saying quite something. If it was delivered here for free, I'm not sure I'd ever look at it. In fact I'm sure I wouldn't. I'd call and have then cancel to save me the nuisance of throwing it away every day.

I like my NY Post. Funny, I remember as a kid, my dad used to commute from Staten Island to mid-town Manhattan to work each day. He took the Staten Island Rapid Transit to the Staten Island Ferry, then took the #1 train to Rockefeller Center. I think he used to hop off the #1 and onto the express at Chambers St., then hop off the express at 42nd, and back on the #1 for a couple of stops. And on the way to work he read the NY Daily News, which in those days was the more conservative of the two major New York City tabloids, the other being the New York Post. Sometimes on the way home dad would grab a NY Post, too. I remember it was the afternoon edition, which had all the late sports scores, which was great. I didn't care about the news, or the editorials, or the puzzles. I like the Daily News and the Post because they had awesome coverage of the Mets, Knicks, and Giants, my main sports interests as a boy and as a teen. Still to this day, I guess. I get the N.Y. Post here in Florida. I read the editorials, work some of the puzzles, and when the Mets, Giants, or Knicks don't totally suck, I like to read about them. Most of the time that's sort of depressing, and I don't bother. that will change when one of them has a good squad.

Of the other two New York papers that I can get locally, the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal, for me there's been nothing to the decision: the Times has sunk to a nadir so low, I don't know if it will ever recover. It's pure political propaganda. Unabashed, unashamed, and untethered to truth, it's a joke of a publication, something sad to see from a once proud paper.

Today's WSJ

 And that brings me the the Journal, the WSJ as they say. Right of center, with a focus on business and economic issues, I have really enjoyed the Journal for most of the time I've taken it. But here, in the era of Trump, I've come to a crossroads. The Wall Street Journal has joined the rest of the mainstream media, with the exception of Fox News (of which I am no big fan at all, really), not a one of them is doing any diligent investigation or reporting on the Hunter Biden/Joe Biden stories. Sure, it's been touched, barely, on the Editorial pages, but I've see no investigative or journalistic content about it otherwise in the WSJ since the story broke. I've heard rumors that the Biden Campaign has let all outlets know that if they give service to this story, that they'll be blacklisted by a Biden White House. I can't presume to know if the WSJ has acquiesced to those threats, if they're just full on never-Trumpers at this point, or what. All I know is to me it's unacceptable. Totally and completely unacceptable. I'm cancelling my subscription to the WSJ. If this is what they've become, then I need the WSJ in my house no more then the Louisville C-J, USA Today, the NY Times, or Charlotte Sun: i.e. I don't need it. Useless to me.

From Today's NY Post

Funny, the one paper with the balls to break and cover the Joe and Hunter Biden corruption story is the NY Post. Founded by Alexander Hamilton over 200 years ago, and now with a conservative editorial leaning, the Post is locked out of Twitter for having the audacity to cover this scandal. The Post. Silly, catchy headlines. Pictures of celebrities. Almost always a swimsuit babe somewhere in it. Gossip. The goddamned NY Post are the only major print entity in my sphere with the balls to cover this. Cancel my Wall Street Journal. I get the Post.

10/29/2020 - 1 Pay No Attention to the Man Behind the Curtain

 

1) Let's count votes up to 9 days after Election Day.

2) Let's not require a legible postmark showing the ballot was mailed in a timely manner.

3) Let's not require a verifiable signature that can match the voter to their registration.

4) Let's not require the ballot to have a witnesses signature.

5) Let's not require voter IDs at the polls.

I see a trend here, a disconcerting pattern. Luckily, voter fraud is just a figment of my paranoid imagination. Who told me that? The same exact people who said the 5 things I listed above. Feel better now? I don't. Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain.

10/29/2020 Girl Scouts Bullied By Leftist Mob For Recognizing Fifth Woman on SCOTUS

 

The Girl Scouts took down this supposedly political tweet.

 

Black people: DO NOT think for yourselves! Thou art black, and thou shalt conform in thought and in deed to the expressed opinions and mindset of your masters, the Democratic Party. You will vote for Joe Biden. If you don't, "You ain't black!"

Women: You, too, will conform to the will and whims of the Democratic Party. Women who do not do so are unworthy of praise and admiration! Justice (perish the thought that the title be real!) Amy Coney Barrett, for example, in adopting her Catholicism and incorporating it into her lifestyle, in growing a large family, can not and will not be celebrated for her so-called successes and achievements. She is but a puppet of backward thinkers, an anathema among women to be detested, de-legitimized and undermined at every opportunity. Eschewing reasonable thought, she is a danger and must be stopped!

Rapper 50-Cent (about whom I freely admit, I don't know jack shit) recently endorsed Donald Trump in his reelection bid. His ex-girlfriend, Chelsea Handler (who I don't know shit about, either), seems to have talked him out of it, though. It's a good thing! We can't have black men, especially black men with pop culture followings, toeing other than the company line. Candace Owens, Leo Terrell, Larry Elder, and other black conservatives? They're disregarded as "Uncle Toms", disloyal and to be ignored. Meanwhile, how in the fuck have Democrats made life better for black Americans, especially in our biggest cities? I reject the movement that presumes we are still the United States of Slavery, that presumes the Civil Rights Act of 1968 didn't happen, that assumes every problem and travail has it's "roots" in racism. Black people, I urge you: don't think my way. Don't think their way. Think for yourselves! Assess and form your opinion free from thoughts you're conditioned to have.

The Girl Scouts of America put up a tweet the other day, celebrating Justice Amy Coney Barrett as just the 5th woman to be elevated as a Supreme Court Justice. The angry mob of thought controllers assaulted the Girl Scouts with a short but relentless barrage of complaints that they had the nerve to take the political stance they did, celebrating someone as loathsome as Barrett. Barrett, after all, is pro life, pro family, and naming her to the court could threaten abortion. Acquiescing to the mob, the Girl Scouts took down the tweet and apologized. Similarly, I read reports over the last two days of leftists who were dismayed that Justice Barrett was moving into what had been Justice Ginsburg's chamber. Thankfully, Justice Barrett didn't heed their anguished cries. Instead she moved in, just as justices have always done.

I do not believe that conservatives have every answer, every solution, and stand forever righteous in all things. Far from it. And I will be goddamned if I will allow conventional conservative 'wisdom' dictate my opinions and political preferences. I tell you what, though. Give me more independent thinking black Americans, and more liberated women, women liberated from the women's movement, liberated from the control of men, and liberated from then right and the left. Give me more Amy Coney Barrett's and Candace Owens's,

And as for the so-called cancel culture, the cultural and societal forces that police blacks and women to prevent independent thought and opinions that oppose the 'accepted' norms and positions of the left's masters? Smarten the fuck up. Maybe, just maybe, there's a reason the people you loathe and chastise see the world differently than you. Find out why. Come to understand why their opinions differ from yours. And then, so me a favor: think critically, think constructively, and most importantly, think for yourselves!

10/18/2020 Polls and 2020 Things to Watch, Predictions 2 Weeks Out

 

2016 Electoral College Final Results

 

Why Presidential Polls are inaccurate (not just this time around, but in general, plus factors applicable just this time around, too):

1) It's really hard to develop a model that will predict which registered voters (RV) and likely voters (LV) will actually vote, and then predict on top of that how they'll really vote. In a given state, "suburban, high school educated males" might vote one way in the suburbs of the biggest city or cities in a state, but maybe not so in smaller cities and towns, etc. Same goes for "Hispanic females", or college educated women, etc. To predict Hispanic females in Florida, for example, we have sizable Puerto Rican, Cuban, Mexican, and Venezuelan populations, distributed unevenly in terms of geographic distribution, and each of those four groups of Hispanic women is liable to have it's own predominant turnout and voting habits. So, take all the variables, and each state's population and employment nuances, a model that will accurately predict the overall result is very complicated. If the model's no good, the prediction may not be very good.

2) Assuming a reasonable model is developed, it's a lot of time and expense to collect a big enough sample to accurately model all the complexities laid out in #1, above. 500 voters isn't going to cut it. Financial and time constraints, even coming from big named pollsters means that corners get cut. If the sample isn't adequate, then the result may be a best guess, rather than something the pollster feels certain of.

3) I read that 98% of people who pollsters attempt to survey decline to participate. You've got to ring a lot of phones to get a sample of 5,000 or 10,000 or more. A lot! Then you have to wonder if those who do participate represent the whole of the voting public very well, or if they don't. If the participants aren't reflective of the voting population at large, oh well.

4) People lie to pollsters. "Shy Trump voters" and people who will simply get a kick out of being dishonest with a pollster are really out there. If a pollster doesn't craft their questions carefully to elicit reliable responses, fuggedaboutit.

5) Pollsters often have their own political motivations in conducting a poll. Whether it's their own bias or the desires of their client, often a poll's purpose is NOT to accurately predict the outcome as best as the pollster can, but it is to influence the electorate. I believe we have been seeing a LOT of that thus far in this election cycle. The pollsters working for big named media entities, New York Times, Fox News, ABC, CNN, and other big names like Sienna, Trafalgar, Rasmussen, etc., are not immune to this. What I've often observed is that the numbers move in the week or two preceding the actual election, this is an attempt by the big polling entity to move away from the influence polling numbers they've been releasing, toward something more accurate to protect their reputation as a pollster for posterity, and the next cycle. Watch the polls the next week and the following. Are the numbers changing? Why? Most everyone in this cycle has their mind made up, and has for a long time. Big changes tells you that they weren't being straight with you to begin with.

6) National numbers are nearly meaningless. Saying one candidate leads nationally by 4 points is damned near useless information. We have an electoral college. That's how it works. Ignore national numbers unless the margin in the day or two leading up to the election is huge, like 10+. I've got news for you, it won't be. If a pollster is telling you it is, which of 1-5, above, is the reason?

So, what does Good Ol' Matty P recommend you watch if you want to get a feel for how things are going? Pretty simple. Biden is going to win NY, CA, IL, MA, HI, and several others. Trump's not competitive in them, and you can chalk them off already. Trump is going to win a lot of smaller southern and western states. A lot of them: AL, MS, LA, KY, TN, etc.  Probably the easiest thing to do is to look at the 2016 final map, which I posted, above, and think, "Which states has Trump got a realistic chance of flipping to red that Clinton won in 2016? Which 2016 Trump states does Biden have a realistic chance to flip blue?" If you take the sure bets off the map, there aren't near as many to think about.

Me? I think it will be close. Of the states that come in early, if Biden wins Florida, Trump will have a long uphill battle. Spoiler: Trump is going to win Florida by 3%, maybe more. And if Trump wins Florida, watch North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. If Biden sweeps them, it'll be a long night for Trump. If Trump wins 2 of those 3, in about any combination, it's going to be a bad night for Biden. If Biden wins Florida AND Georgia (he won't), Trump is toast.

As the evening unfolds, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Arizona, and Nevada may be interesting. Good Ol' Matty P thinks Biden will need all of them to win to win it.

Things that would surprise me? Biden winning Ohio, Iowa, or Texas. Trump winning New Mexico, Colorado, or BOTH of Arizona and Nevada. I think he wins one of the two, but not both.

 

Polls that I'm watching now?  Florida, but mostly because I live here. PA, MI, WI, MN, AZ, NV, NC: I think  the race will be won or lost there.

Pollsters I'm paying attention to? Big Data Polls (People's Pundit on Twitter and YouTube), Trafalgar, and Rasmussen.

One last word: all of the above is meaningless if we don't exercise our rights and vote. So, no matter who you like or don't like, who you support or don't support, which way you lean, get out and vote. It's too easy not to. And remember: Republican Election Day is November 3rd, and Democrats, your polls will be open and ready for you on November 4th. Just kidding. But if you fall for that, you don't deserve to vote, anyways.

Have a great evening friends! God bless.