Do the Math - 12-21-2021

Omicron

A quick hitter this morning. There won't be a test.

Omicron is less deadly and less serious illnesses. Omicron is far more contagious. Omicron is here. Some hypothetical numbers, for illustration... here's why I'm paying attention:

First of all, Omicron is thought to be less virulent, meaning "less deadly" and "less serious illnesses". That says LESS, it does not say NOT or NONE. Let's assume Delta and previous mutations were/are 5 times more "serious", meaning 5 times as many of the infected people got seriously ill or died from than than will from Omicron. This means on a per person basis, a person who is infected by Omicron is 0.2 times as likely to get seriously ill or die than a person with the others. (THIS IS A HYPOTHETICAL PERCENTAGE/NUMBER!)

Omicron is far more contagious than the previous mutations. Let's say that it is 10 times more transmissible. (THIS IS A HYPOTHETICAL PERCENTAGE/NUMBER!) If one person with the old versions would infect 2 others, then 10 times that means one person would infect 20 people with Omicron.

0.2 (less deadly) x 10 (more contagious) = 2 (times more worrisome!)

I am less worried about my personal chances with Omicron if I catch it than before. But I am aware my chances to catch it are higher AND that the net effect on our population at large may be very bad.

If it is the same here as it was in Europe, the number of Omicron infections in the US will double every 3 or so days. According to this morning's Wall Street Journal, Omicron is already the most common variant in the US found in newly infected people. And it's only been here a couple of weeks or so!

It's still serious. I will be vigilant. I don't know that we can stop this variant. In the UK it has roared through the population very quickly. It is likely to do the same here. On the other hand, if Omicron leaves us with natural immunity from other variants, it may be a fast path to herd immunity. I'd say in that case, "bring it on", but for the people who invariably will become seriously ill or worse, that's not a wish I'd wish on anyone.

"It's just a cold." Okay, I get your point, but I don't recall ever in my life hearing that someone died of a cold. I know several who died from the CCP Virus. This new shit is less virulent but more contagious. Whether it's .1 times less deadly or .5 times, and if it's 3 times more contagious or if it's 10 times more contagious remains to be seen. I'm going to be careful. I'm taking personal responsibility. My body. My choice.

Dr. John Campbell Covid-19 Coverage 12-20-2021

Dr. John Campbell has become my most trusted source of info on the CCP Virus.

If you're not following and listening to Dr. John Campbell and you're interested in reasonable and apolitical explanations and data about the virus, I recommend you check his channel occasionally. I believe that Campbell is a nurse with a Phd. His explanations are easy to understand, and while he is focused on the United Kingdom and Europe, he always explains how he expects what he's seeing there to translate to the USA. Yesterday I listened to this talk about Omicron. From my aging memory, the key things I took away were:

Omicron is more likely replicate itself more in the bronchial passages, where other mutations of the virus multiply lower in the lung. The result is more bronchitis than the pneumonia common with previous mutations, and because this one is in bronchial passages, this one is more communicable from just normal breathing.

Omicron is more contagious than the previous mutations, but less virulent. So you are more likely to catch it, but it is not as serious for most people. However, this one is spreading to so many more people that the net result in raw numbers of people with serious health issues as a result may be even higher, despite being less dangerous on an infected person by person basis. I guess the fact that it's less dangerous will be small consolation to the people who do get seriously ill from it or worse.

Omicron is spreading so fast in the UK he thinks they may reach herd immunity in a relatively short period of time. The split in the UK now if 60/40 Omicron vs. previous mutations, with the Omicron number rising rapidly.

Germany has ordered millions and millions of Omicron specific vaccinations. I don't know if they even exist yet. Either this was a pre-order or they exist. Campbell either didn't say or I didn't catch it.

What they are seeing there with Omicron we are likely to see in the US in the next month or two. I wonder if this high number of high profile people (athletes and politicians) testing positive is a result of the new Omicron variation? I don't know.

Campbell's videos give these type explanations daily. He gives good news and bad. I have heard him agree with government officials and also draw different conclusions, although he is diplomatic when he differs so as to not offend the YouTube and other social media censors who would presume themselves more knowledgeable and qualified than he to understand and explain CCP Virus issues. I am sure some of you will disagree with him at times because he differs or agrees with government officials. You're entitled to your opinion. I recommend you listen to Campbell and his explanations on their own merit, without the prejudice of those agreements or disagreements.

I highly recommend those of you who want unbiased and thorough explanations of what goes on with the virus, that you watch Dr. Campbell on a fairly regular basis. Here's a link to his YouTube page: Campbell's channel.

CCP Virus Divisiveness and Incoherence 12-17-2021

 

They're both absolutely sure they're right, and even more importantly, both are certain the other guy is wrong. Dead wrong.

Most of us are out to lunch when it comes to discussing this virus, how it's being dealt with, just about everything about it. I want to try to boil some things down and parse them out just a bit. I am not a virologist, nor am I an advanced mathematician. But I have struggled, tried very hard to understand this whole virus thing. I've seen the points you and many others have made on social media. Here are some thoughts on some of the most hotly debated and contested issues:

"Masks work!" "No, masks don't work!"

Do masks work for Covid, which I prefer to call the Communist Chinese Party Virus (CCP Virus)? Well for starters, what do you mean by work? A lot of people think masks working means, "If I wear a mask, will the mask work and ensure that I don't get sick?" Then the next person is saying, "If you wear a mask when you're around me, will the mask work and ensure that you won't get me sick?" And then you've got some thinking if we all wear masks, will the masks work and ensure none of us gets sick?" Well, I don't believe masks are that fully effective. In the context of these questions, work and don't work are sort of an absolute, a guarantee. The person who tells you, I'm not wearing a mask because they don't work, is telling you the mask won't guarantee that nobody can catch the CCP Virus.

Well, mask wearing doesn't guarantee that nobody will catch it. You, me, everybody wearing masks will to a debatable extent reduce transmission, but NOT eliminate transmission. The type of mask, if the masks are worn properly, and whether or not the masks are fresh/clean, i.e. changed out regularly at "proper" intervals, will also factor into efficacy. It's a numbers game. A guy with the virus enters a closed space with 100 people, theoretically/hypothetically, and nobody has on a mask, and they interact all day, or for some certain amount of time, let's say 40 of the 100 will catch it. If that guy wears a proper mask, maybe 40 is reduced to 30 or 20. And if everyone wears a proper mask, maybe the number is reduced further to 5 or 10 or something. The definition of the mask working, if you look at it as a fail safe means of protecting yourself, probably isn't that if I use it I still have a 5-10% chance to catch it. "I've still got a 5-10% chance to catch it? The damned mask don't work, I ain't wearing one!" All they are really doing in advocating masks is trying to reduce transmission. After much thought, I think a much better discussion about masks is "Do masks help," rather than, "Do masks work?" If a medicine works we either don't get sick or we get better. If it helps, we may still be sick but not as severe. Which leads me to the next things, vaccines and boosters. One of the biggest blunders officials made when it came to the mask mandate strategy was initially to sell it as only necessary until we have a vaccine. That was a major fuck up there, no doubt about it.

The vaccines - what to trust, or not trust? I truthfully can't say I know.

The vaccines are so effective you can still catch and transmit the CCP Virus after you've had the jabs. The vaccines are so effective that you probably better still wear a mask indoors. The vaccine is effective, but it wears off over time. The vaccine is effective, but we're not sure about the Omicron mutation, or whatever other mutants may come along. You cannot enter here without proof of vaccination. You cannot work here if you haven't been vaccinated. You cannot attend classes here unless you've been vaccinated. You cannot travel unless you've been vaccinated. Maybe, even after you've had a booster, you'll have to get a new vaccination for Omicron or other mutations that come along. Due to Omicron, in person classes are cancelled, even for the vaccinated. Ai yai yai yai yai!

I've come to my own conclusion: similar to the masks, they're not guaranteeing anybody anything with the vaccines. It's another numbers game. If nobody gets a jab, then depending on something called the "R Value" or "R Number", a certain number of people will catch it and transmit it to the next person, and so on and so on. Vaccinated people can still catch and transmit, but whatever that R Value is, it is reduced by some too complicated to explain percentage. So instead of telling us we're 25%, 50%, 75% less likely to catch and transmit if we're vaccinated, they just urge and mandate and chastise the non-compliers. And the non-compliers, rightly so, in my opinion, are calling bullshit. Why? Because if I can still catch and transmit, then the vaccine don't work. We should be talking about how much the vaccines can help, but instead we are arguing whether they work or don't work, which to most people means guarantees to us we won't get sick.

What's worse is that the vaccines wear off. So two weeks after you get it it's some percent effective, let's say 90%, but in 6 months that might be 50% or 60%. Then you need a booster, which they think will work for Omicron. I'm glad they think so. Scientists. Sheesh.

Scientists: they're learning as they go. Hard to know who to trust.

The bottom line is while scientists surely are looking for a 100% effective cure and for 100% effective preventive medicines and strategies, that in the meantime their strategy is more of a numbers game. This is where I know I'm out of my depth, but I'm going into the weeds a bit to make a point. Each mutation has a different "R Value". I read that anything higher than a "1" is bad. I watched a video earlier form Dr. John Campbell (Do yourselves a favor and find him on YouTube and watch him.).  He said the Omicron has an R Value in England of 3 or 4. That is alarmingly high. Remember they told us the Delta variant was more transmissible than the original, and now this is even more so. Omicron, on the other hand, may be less deadly and cause less serious illness.

So the scientists are making complex mathematical models. They have to factor in which variants of the virus are circulating, and there is more than one, more than two even. Then they look at social distancing, mask wearing, both mask compliance and quality of mask wearing, vaccines... what percentage has had them, which of the three Pfizer, Moderna, and J&J did people get or NOT get, how many have had a booster, how long has it been since the vaccine or booster was administered, etc. They have to factor in natural immunity: who had it, how long ago, what antibodies do they still have, how long do those last? See, while they DON'T have a cure, a medicine or a strategy that will work in the traditional sense to keep us all well and eradicate the virus, they instead are looking at strategies and scenarios to try to find a magic number that will reduce or make the virus manageable, or hopefully even containable.

They HOPE they find a magic number for vaccination, and mask compliance, along with natural immunity to get in front of this stuff. So far they haven't. Our President ran saying the former President didn't have a plan, but he did. Bullshit. This stuff is more widespread now than before, more people died this year than last, too. Well if he's got a plan, it isn't working. There's that word again. I said working. Because to me working means no more people getting sick, no more virus. Forget that. Shit, Joe's plan isn't even helping. More people died than last year, Joe. Dumbass.

The next time you want to argue for mandatory closures, restrictions on travel, work, dining, etc., the next time you want vaccine mandates and mask mandates and someone objects, don't try to tell them "Because they work." Bullshit. If the vaccine works, tell me why the vaccinated are so worried about being near unvaccinated people. Tell me why vaccinated people are sill wearing masks. They're doing so because it doesn't work.

We should be having honest discussions about what helps. Masks don't work, but do they help? How much do they help? What about vaccine? How does it help? But no. We're arguing works vs. don't work, and none of us has a real handle in the mechanics and mathematics of help... What helps or don't help and how much? Our leaders have done a shitty job selling their strategies. Us regular people? We'd rather argue about shit working or not working than to understand what helps and what don't and how much so we can dialogue productively.

What do I know? I don't work no more, neither, I'm retired. I'm also vaccinated and boostered. My decision.

Rittenhouse Case Vs. the Aubrey Case - 11/19/2021-1

The number of people who have NO IDEA WHAT THE RELEVANT LAWS ARE and who TAKE NO TIME WHATSOEVER TO TRY TO LEARN AND UNDERSTAND THE LAWS SURROUNDING THE CASE, yet who proclaim assertively why Kyle Rittenhouse should be either convicted or exonerated is astounding. I hope the jury is able to do what it's obvious a majority of Americans and our corrupt media can't: strip away their emotions and decide based on the facts and the law.

 

Kyle Rittenhouse in the courtroom.

Further, I see no parallel or link between the Rittenhouse case and the case against the men who killed Ahmed Aubrey. If my understanding of the facts in both cases is indeed correct, and if justice is done fairly and impartially, as I hope we all would hope to be the case, Rittenhouse will get off and Aubrey's killers will be convicted and spend the rest of their days in jail.

 

Aubrey case defendants.

 

Book Recommendations - 11/19/2021

Several days ago Bob Settle hit me up for an update on my book recommendations. This will take a minute, but here goes. I am mostly drawing from the last couple of years, and sticking, I think for the most part, to non-fiction. If you don't want to read all the prose, scroll down and I compiled a little list toward the end of this post. But if you do you'll miss all my musings and explanations... your choice.

Books, books, books, books, books.

 

I love Stephen Ambrose books. As great as his World War II works are: Citizen Soldiers, Band of Brothers, D-Day, etc., my two favorites so far are Nothing Like it in the World, about the building of then Transcontinental Railroad, and Undaunted Courage, which tells the epic story of the Lewis and Clark expedition in the early 1800's.

I have had a lifelong love affair and endless fascination with our U.S. National Parks, as well as histories of the exploration of the American West and how westward expansion and settlement impacted the various Native-American tribes. Empire of Shadows, by George Black, covered both topics and was a really great read. I highly recommend it.

Next I'll add a pair of books co-written by Bob Drury and Tom Clavin. As much as I liked several of Tom Clavin's solo books, Tombstone, Dodge City, and Wild Bill, his works with Bob Drury are superior. I definitely recommend The Last Stand of Fox Company, a Korean War. Chosin Reservoir USMC story that is at once gripping and awe inspiring. I recently read their Blood and Treasure, Daniel Boone and the Fight for America's First Frontier. I really liked this book. It humanized Boone, whose legend is nearly comic book stuff, and described early U.S. expansion and settlement into Kentucky, a state I have lived in and owned a home in for 30 years.

The next two books that make my list are two that I read prior to the pandemic, both of which I am fairly certain I will read again. One Bullet Away, by Nathaniel Fick. This book is one of the best USMC book I ever read in that it really gives one a sense of what the Corps is and who Marines are. This is essential reading for anyone interested in understanding the Marines. Unbroken, by Laura Hillenbrand, is the story of Luis Zamperini, an Olympic athlete and World War II airman. Between his survival on a raft, survival in a Japanese POW camp, and his story after the war, this is one of the best stories I ever read about any aspect of the Pacific Theater in WWII.

David McCullough has become perhaps my favorite author of historic, non-fiction. I am currently reading The Path Between the Seas, about the construction of the Panama Canal. I'm almost halfway through and I already know it needs to be on this list. His John Adams is in my top 10 history books of all time and if you love our country and our history and you haven't read it, you have to. The Great Bridge, which chronicles the construction of the Brooklyn Bridge in the late 1800's, is an epic and I can't recommend it highly enough. McCullough's Mornings on Horseback, which covers Theodore Roosevelt's younger years, is absolutely must read stuff. I read several other of McCullough's works, 1776., The Wright Brothers, The Pioneers, and have his The Johnstown Flood, Truman, and The Great Journey, Americans in Paris all lined up on my yet to be read collection. But Adams, the Bridge, Mornings, and the Path, which I'm reading now, are the four I most highly recommend.

I recently read The Last Stand, Custer, Sitting Bull, and the Battle of the Little Bighorn, by Nathaniel Philbrick. This book fits perfectly into the genre I've come to love, expansion into the west and the plight or fate of Native Americans as the expansion took place. I definitely recommend it. Toward the book's conclusion I learned that there were veterans of the 7th Cavalry who took place in the Wounded Knee massacre in December, 1890. I had a copy of Bury My Heart at Wounded Knee by Dee Brown, many years ago, but never read it and somehow got disconnected from it. So I ordered a new copy and it is high on my list for 2022. Also on my list for 2022, while I am writing about Bury My Heart, I also have Empire of the Summer Moon, Quanah Parker and the Rise and Fall of the Comanche Tribe by S.C. Gwynne cued up for 2022. When I'm ready for more about Custer and the Little Bighorn, I have Stephen Ambrose's Custer and Crazy Horse also on my shelf to be read.

Last year and this I read three by Hampton Sides. Blood and Thunder, The Epic Story of Kit Carson and the Conquest of the American West. That book was really well written and fits with those listed in the preceding paragraph as far as genre and content. And as far as conquest goes, I think it is fair to say it is the story of the conquest of the Native-American tribes more than of the west itself, although there iis also described in it the conflicts with Mexico that led to annexation of what would become the western states of California, Arizona, New Mexico, etc.

Hampton Sides also wrote In the Kingdom of Ice, the epic story of the USS Jeanette's disastrous but amazing attempt to sail to the North Pole in the 1800's. I can't recommend this one highly enough. I have to thank the aforementioned Bob Settle for this great recommendation. The Other Hampton Sides book I read this year is On Desperate Ground, which paired with The Last Stand of Fox Company, comprised a great study of the US Marines in the Korean War. In On Desperate Ground, Sides does a good job exploring Douglas MacArthur's leadership. I'll leave it at that.

Even though it's been a couple of years, I should include Life, Keith Richards 2010 Autobiography. If you love the Stones like I do, this book is an absolute must. It's written in a way that I could imagine Keith in the room telling the story to me in person as I read it. Highly recommended for 60's and 70's rock fans. A must.

Last but not least in this post, another book I read some time back, but which anyone who is interested in the Pacific Theater in WWII and the US Marines ought to read, With the Old Breed, by E.B. Sledge. Along with the aforementioned One Bullet Away (Fick), no book I ever read gave a clearer understanding of what it was like for Marines in island to island combat in WWII. I give this book my highest recommendation.

Rated on a scale of 1-10, here are my recommendations in list format, with each Rating - Title - Author:

10/10 - Nothing Like it in the World - Stephen Ambrose

10/10 - Undaunted Courage - Stephen Ambrose

8/10 - Empire of Shadows - George Black

10/10 - The Last Stand of Fox Company - Bob Drury and Tom Clavin

8/10 - Blood and Treasure, Daniel Boone and the Fight for America's First Frontier - Bob Drury and Tom Clavin

10/10 - One Bullet Away - Nathaniel Fick

10/10 - Unbroken - Laura Hillenbrand

TBD - The Path Between the Seas - David McCullough

10/10 - John Adams - David McCullough

9/10 - The Great Bridge - David McCullough

9/10 - Mornings on Horseback - David McCullough 

9/10 - The Last Stand, Custer, Sitting Bull, and the Battle of the Little Bighorn - Nathaniel Philbrick

8/10 - Life - Keith Richards

9/10 - Blood and Thunder, The Epic Story of Kit Carson and the Conquest of the American West - Hampton Sides

9/10 - In the Kingdom of Ice - Hampton Sides

9/10 - On Desperate Ground - Hampton Sides

10/10 - With the Old Breed - E.B. Sledge

I have a ton of fiction lined up for 2022 and also some great non-fiction. Remind me and I'll post an update toward the end of next year.

 

Rittenhouse Madness - 11/15/2021

This morning I'm making just a quick hitter post, as the Kyle Rittenhouse verdict may come today. Just a few thoughts and unpopular opinions, so here goes:

I support Second Amendment rights and gun ownership. But as soon as I heard about this incident my reaction was to think, 'the kid had no business taking a long gun (or any gun) up there'. Should it have been or was it legal to do that? Yes. But I put a kid like Rittenhouse taking the gun up there squarely into the "nothing good can come from it" category.

Pointing a gun at an armed man down can lead to tragedy. And it did.

 

So just to be clear, I'm not calling Rittenhouse a knight in shining armor or anything like that. But if you're reading this and see him as the single villain in the story, you're also probably someone who bought into the Antifa and BLM protests as being "peaceful protests". No, they weren't peaceful protests, and you're a goddamned liar or stupid if that's what you think. Let me refresh your memory: the criminals had gone wild, using some peaceful protestors as cover, across the country they were taking over police stations, burning vehicles, including police cars. They were threatening people in restaurants, breaking into businesses, burning, robbing, and in full on riot mode. If you're pretending that all the shit that was going on, and the intentionally ineffectual police responses nationwide to the crime and destruction, was all okay and normal and acceptable, you're part of the problem. Police were largely standing down so as to not escalate the situation, leaving innocent persons and business owners victims to violent, destructive, criminal mobs, masquerading in and amongst some peaceful protesters. If the police weren't going to step in and control the mobs, then who?

I saw the videos. I have read the trial testimony. Anti-gun people want to make Rittenhouse the aggressor solely because he had the audacity to bring a gun to the rioting, looting, and arson in Kenosha. The prosecutor is trying to make his shootings into premeditated murder. Bullshit. If he wasn't threatened, nobody ever was. The fact he had the audacity to bring the gun to a riot does NOT surrender his right to defend himself, in my opinion. A lot of people, myself included, carry a gun for self-defense. Many of us have a gun in our vehicle for that same purpose. Many, many, many of us have guns in our home for home protection. When we are threatened, should circumstances come to pass that bring us to use those guns in self defense, the fact we exercised our right to have the weapon does NOT constitute premeditation. That is what the prosecution is alleging, and it's bullshit.

Rittenhouse showed up with a gun. Back to where I started, my immediate thinking is, "What was he thinking? Nothing good can come from it." But if you want to ignore what was going on in Kenosha, Minneapolis, Seattle, Portland, and other cities, and characterize this kid as the lone villain, I don't know how to help you. You're in a echo chamber where anything I say isn't likely to resonate. I contend that had nobody gone after Rittenhouse, then nobody would have gotten shot. His error in judgement for being there with the gun considered, in my opinion the kid acted in self defense.

Not guilty.

Follow the Science - 11/14/2021-2

"Follow the science."

"Okay, I will. Show me the science on virus transmission from people with naturally acquired immunity."

 

"There is none. Our scientists haven't studied it."

 

"By 'our scientists', are you referring to the scientists whose science you advocate that I should follow?"

 

"Well, yes."

 

"Are these scientists too lazy to study natural immunity, too stupid to know it should be studied, or too dishonest about their motives to study something that might take big pharma money out of their pockets?"

 

I'll tell you why I think they haven't studied it. Bureaucrats and regulators have decided a one size fits all approach, with all of the eggs in the vaccine basket will be easier to oversee and manage. They are also beholden to and endlessly trying to ingratiate themselves to big pharma, and there is no money for big pharma if you are naturally immune (aka a virus survivor) and do not require an injection.

 

Follow the science, my ass. Follow the dollars.