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| They're both absolutely sure they're right, and even more importantly, both are certain the other guy is wrong. Dead wrong. |
Most of us are out to lunch when it comes to discussing this virus, how it's being dealt with, just about everything about it. I want to try to boil some things down and parse them out just a bit. I am not a virologist, nor am I an advanced mathematician. But I have struggled, tried very hard to understand this whole virus thing. I've seen the points you and many others have made on social media. Here are some thoughts on some of the most hotly debated and contested issues:
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| "Masks work!" "No, masks don't work!" |
Do masks work for Covid, which I prefer to call the Communist Chinese Party Virus (CCP Virus)? Well for starters, what do you mean by work? A lot of people think masks working means, "If I wear a mask, will the mask work and ensure that I don't get sick?" Then the next person is saying, "If you wear a mask when you're around me, will the mask work and ensure that you won't get me sick?" And then you've got some thinking if we all wear masks, will the masks work and ensure none of us gets sick?" Well, I don't believe masks are that fully effective. In the context of these questions, work and don't work are sort of an absolute, a guarantee. The person who tells you, I'm not wearing a mask because they don't work, is telling you the mask won't guarantee that nobody can catch the CCP Virus.
Well, mask wearing doesn't guarantee that nobody will catch it. You, me, everybody wearing masks will to a debatable extent reduce transmission, but NOT eliminate transmission. The type of mask, if the masks are worn properly, and whether or not the masks are fresh/clean, i.e. changed out regularly at "proper" intervals, will also factor into efficacy. It's a numbers game. A guy with the virus enters a closed space with 100 people, theoretically/hypothetically, and nobody has on a mask, and they interact all day, or for some certain amount of time, let's say 40 of the 100 will catch it. If that guy wears a proper mask, maybe 40 is reduced to 30 or 20. And if everyone wears a proper mask, maybe the number is reduced further to 5 or 10 or something. The definition of the mask working, if you look at it as a fail safe means of protecting yourself, probably isn't that if I use it I still have a 5-10% chance to catch it. "I've still got a 5-10% chance to catch it? The damned mask don't work, I ain't wearing one!" All they are really doing in advocating masks is trying to reduce transmission. After much thought, I think a much better discussion about masks is "Do masks help," rather than, "Do masks work?" If a medicine works we either don't get sick or we get better. If it helps, we may still be sick but not as severe. Which leads me to the next things, vaccines and boosters. One of the biggest blunders officials made when it came to the mask mandate strategy was initially to sell it as only necessary until we have a vaccine. That was a major fuck up there, no doubt about it.
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| The vaccines - what to trust, or not trust? I truthfully can't say I know. |
The vaccines are so effective you can still catch and transmit the CCP Virus after you've had the jabs. The vaccines are so effective that you probably better still wear a mask indoors. The vaccine is effective, but it wears off over time. The vaccine is effective, but we're not sure about the Omicron mutation, or whatever other mutants may come along. You cannot enter here without proof of vaccination. You cannot work here if you haven't been vaccinated. You cannot attend classes here unless you've been vaccinated. You cannot travel unless you've been vaccinated. Maybe, even after you've had a booster, you'll have to get a new vaccination for Omicron or other mutations that come along. Due to Omicron, in person classes are cancelled, even for the vaccinated. Ai yai yai yai yai!
I've come to my own conclusion: similar to the masks, they're not guaranteeing anybody anything with the vaccines. It's another numbers game. If nobody gets a jab, then depending on something called the "R Value" or "R Number", a certain number of people will catch it and transmit it to the next person, and so on and so on. Vaccinated people can still catch and transmit, but whatever that R Value is, it is reduced by some too complicated to explain percentage. So instead of telling us we're 25%, 50%, 75% less likely to catch and transmit if we're vaccinated, they just urge and mandate and chastise the non-compliers. And the non-compliers, rightly so, in my opinion, are calling bullshit. Why? Because if I can still catch and transmit, then the vaccine don't work. We should be talking about how much the vaccines can help, but instead we are arguing whether they work or don't work, which to most people means guarantees to us we won't get sick.
What's worse is that the vaccines wear off. So two weeks after you get it it's some percent effective, let's say 90%, but in 6 months that might be 50% or 60%. Then you need a booster, which they think will work for Omicron. I'm glad they think so. Scientists. Sheesh.
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| Scientists: they're learning as they go. Hard to know who to trust. |
The bottom line is while scientists surely are looking for a 100% effective cure and for 100% effective preventive medicines and strategies, that in the meantime their strategy is more of a numbers game. This is where I know I'm out of my depth, but I'm going into the weeds a bit to make a point. Each mutation has a different "R Value". I read that anything higher than a "1" is bad. I watched a video earlier form Dr. John Campbell (Do yourselves a favor and find him on YouTube and watch him.). He said the Omicron has an R Value in England of 3 or 4. That is alarmingly high. Remember they told us the Delta variant was more transmissible than the original, and now this is even more so. Omicron, on the other hand, may be less deadly and cause less serious illness.
So the scientists are making complex mathematical models. They have to factor in which variants of the virus are circulating, and there is more than one, more than two even. Then they look at social distancing, mask wearing, both mask compliance and quality of mask wearing, vaccines... what percentage has had them, which of the three Pfizer, Moderna, and J&J did people get or NOT get, how many have had a booster, how long has it been since the vaccine or booster was administered, etc. They have to factor in natural immunity: who had it, how long ago, what antibodies do they still have, how long do those last? See, while they DON'T have a cure, a medicine or a strategy that will work in the traditional sense to keep us all well and eradicate the virus, they instead are looking at strategies and scenarios to try to find a magic number that will reduce or make the virus manageable, or hopefully even containable.
They HOPE they find a magic number for vaccination, and mask compliance, along with natural immunity to get in front of this stuff. So far they haven't. Our President ran saying the former President didn't have a plan, but he did. Bullshit. This stuff is more widespread now than before, more people died this year than last, too. Well if he's got a plan, it isn't working. There's that word again. I said working. Because to me working means no more people getting sick, no more virus. Forget that. Shit, Joe's plan isn't even helping. More people died than last year, Joe. Dumbass.
The next time you want to argue for mandatory closures, restrictions on travel, work, dining, etc., the next time you want vaccine mandates and mask mandates and someone objects, don't try to tell them "Because they work." Bullshit. If the vaccine works, tell me why the vaccinated are so worried about being near unvaccinated people. Tell me why vaccinated people are sill wearing masks. They're doing so because it doesn't work.
We should be having honest discussions about what helps. Masks don't work, but do they help? How much do they help? What about vaccine? How does it help? But no. We're arguing works vs. don't work, and none of us has a real handle in the mechanics and mathematics of help... What helps or don't help and how much? Our leaders have done a shitty job selling their strategies. Us regular people? We'd rather argue about shit working or not working than to understand what helps and what don't and how much so we can dialogue productively.
What do I know? I don't work no more, neither, I'm retired. I'm also vaccinated and boostered. My decision.
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