Do the Math - 12-21-2021

Omicron

A quick hitter this morning. There won't be a test.

Omicron is less deadly and less serious illnesses. Omicron is far more contagious. Omicron is here. Some hypothetical numbers, for illustration... here's why I'm paying attention:

First of all, Omicron is thought to be less virulent, meaning "less deadly" and "less serious illnesses". That says LESS, it does not say NOT or NONE. Let's assume Delta and previous mutations were/are 5 times more "serious", meaning 5 times as many of the infected people got seriously ill or died from than than will from Omicron. This means on a per person basis, a person who is infected by Omicron is 0.2 times as likely to get seriously ill or die than a person with the others. (THIS IS A HYPOTHETICAL PERCENTAGE/NUMBER!)

Omicron is far more contagious than the previous mutations. Let's say that it is 10 times more transmissible. (THIS IS A HYPOTHETICAL PERCENTAGE/NUMBER!) If one person with the old versions would infect 2 others, then 10 times that means one person would infect 20 people with Omicron.

0.2 (less deadly) x 10 (more contagious) = 2 (times more worrisome!)

I am less worried about my personal chances with Omicron if I catch it than before. But I am aware my chances to catch it are higher AND that the net effect on our population at large may be very bad.

If it is the same here as it was in Europe, the number of Omicron infections in the US will double every 3 or so days. According to this morning's Wall Street Journal, Omicron is already the most common variant in the US found in newly infected people. And it's only been here a couple of weeks or so!

It's still serious. I will be vigilant. I don't know that we can stop this variant. In the UK it has roared through the population very quickly. It is likely to do the same here. On the other hand, if Omicron leaves us with natural immunity from other variants, it may be a fast path to herd immunity. I'd say in that case, "bring it on", but for the people who invariably will become seriously ill or worse, that's not a wish I'd wish on anyone.

"It's just a cold." Okay, I get your point, but I don't recall ever in my life hearing that someone died of a cold. I know several who died from the CCP Virus. This new shit is less virulent but more contagious. Whether it's .1 times less deadly or .5 times, and if it's 3 times more contagious or if it's 10 times more contagious remains to be seen. I'm going to be careful. I'm taking personal responsibility. My body. My choice.