4/16/2020 The Ever Improving CCP Virus Worst Case Scenario

As the worst case scenario number of hospitalizations and deaths from the CCP virus steadily and continually declines, it calls into question the wisdom of destroying the world's economy. The shutdowns always were and still are primarily intended to protect our hospitals and medical personnel from being completely overwhelmed and overcome my multitudes of sick and dying people. Well, it has worked. I personally believe the closures and social distancing guidelines were well intended. I think people vilifying Drs. Fauci and Birx, the President, and anyone else in this country for their efforts up till now are off target.

Be that as it may, we are rapidly approaching a point of even deeper and irreparable harm to our economy and way of life. We need desperately to open our economy back up as soon as we can. Two more weeks until the end of April, and if the trend continues as far as projections and corrections of the models based on improved data assumptions, I suggest a phased approach to opening for business.

Older people, like me and older, and people with various co-morbidities (co-morbidity is a word that I've unfortunately learned during this pandemic) need to continue social distancing and isolating, maybe for a month, two months, even three months longer. Time will tell what the right amount of time is. But schools, stores, restaurants, places of worship, and all manner and sort of other places of business and social activity need to begin to open their doors soon, or they may remain shuttered forever. I'm advocating a phased approach. Maybe we go back to half the shutdowns we have now for a month, then a quarter for a month or two more, I don't know the right percentages or timing. I'm just illustrating a phased approach. And when you do go back to work, shopping, church, etc., you can't go hang out with grandma and grandpa until they're clear of the risk of infection. That part sucks, but it is going to have to be that way in a phased approach.

It's getting to be that time. Thus far everything we've done has been, again in my humble opinion, in good faith and based on avoiding worst case scenarios that were projected at the time decisions were made. But as the hospital ships, makeshift and temporary hospitals, ventilators and other medical equipment, etc., are used in much lower quantities than was feared necessary and for which provisions were made, it becomes a building block to get back to "business as usual", whatever the new usual will turn out to be when this is over.

And when this is over, even though I know this won't happen, I urge that we stop fighting each other: red states vs. blue, rural vs. urban, left vs. right, GOP vs. Dems, Trump vs. the press, etc., and instead we work together to address the things we've learned. I would start with 1) limiting our dependence on China for medical supplies, medicines, food, and technology, especially military technology, and 2) codifying who has what authority and what are the responsibilities at the federal, state, and local levels. I don't believe establishing and standing up a bloated bureaucracy to wait for the next pandemic, which could hopefully be a decade or more off, is the right answer. But neither do I advocate a short memory span inspired "head in the sand" approach, either.

One last thought: how can we ever get things right when we're more interested in who's right than we are in what's right? What's right right about now is for us to keep our spirits up, help our neighbors, and as the data becomes more accurate, to open the US for business when and where we can.

Have a great day, friends! Stay safe. You CAN still catch this stuff if you're not careful. God bless.

4/2/2020 Post: Testing, Testing, and More Testing

President Trump Shows Covid-19 Testing Device at Recent Presser

In the big scheme of things, I understand how things transpired, so I get the reasons "why", but I do believe that we'd have been better off had we started testing sooner. I don't think it would surely have changed too much, but had we started a week or so sooner, we'd have started our hated social distancing a week sooner. And, yes, everyone hates it, but it's still the right play right now. Under the Trump Administration, the US is testing like crazy now, testing 100,000+ people per day. Surely at some point we're caught up with the slow start. But, on the subject of testing, I think we still have a long way to go. I don't think 100,000 a day is enough.

First, there are still many people complaining of symptoms NOT being tested. I don't know how many more than 100,000 per day we'd need to test to meet that need, so without any basis other than a WAG (Wild Ass Guess), I'll say that needs to increase to 150,000 or even to 200,000. Call it 175,000 as a split the difference.

New Rutgers Machine Can Process Thousands of Tests Per Day

The second place we need more testing is recurrent tests for medical personnel. Doctors, nurses, EMTs, and other front-line medical care givers should be tested on some kind of a recurring interval: once a week, every 10 days, two weeks, or monthly. I don't know what's right, but these awesome caregivers are facing the virus in patients day in, and day out, oftentimes for long hours without breaks. We need to protect these people AND their patients by more widespread monitoring than what we have in place now. Is 50,000 tests a day enough? Just another WAG, but whether it's 50,000 or 100,000 additional tests per day, we should have widespread testing of our medica personnel. Let's call it 50,000.

And lastly, we need random testing of the population, across the country. We need to monitor and identify the virus as it hides in and amongst us in the population. If you're going to ask us to shelter in place, and order us the "stay at home", it's tough on morale, it's even tougher on the economy. We need, BADLY, to get people back to work as soon as we can. If we were doing enough random testing, nationwide and tallied and reported by locality, perhaps we can begin loosening restrictions by location. I don't know how many tests would need to be administered daily to identify where the virus is, and in what numbers it is found there, but enough random tests to paint a statistically valid model. And I don't know that we need to do this daily, every other day, or even weekly. That's for the statisticians. So, for my last WAG, I'll call it another 25,000 per day.

Drive Through Covid-19 Testing Site

I'm not overly critical of the slow start to testing. And I am not underselling the magnitude of the effort it took to bring us to where we are now, testing 100,000 people a day. I'm just saying it doesn't seem to me to be enough. We need enough so every symptomatic person is tested, our medical front line people are given recurrent tests, and we need widespread random testing of our at large population. When I add my three guesses together, that's an additional 250,000 tests above and beyond the 100,000, an increase by a magnitude of 2.5 above and beyond what we're doing now. So yeah, they've done a bang-up job getting caught up and back on track. But it's not enough.

Is it ever enough? Will it ever be enough? Smarter people than me will figure it out.

Testing 1,2,3....

3/27/2020 Coronavirus Quick Hitters

Things have been different for us all during this pandemic. We're eating at home more. I'm checking on mom and my siblings a little more often than usual. Our social circle, like mostly everyone with a conscience and common decency, has shrunk considerably. Things will get back to normal. I'm going to keep telling myself that till they do.

My 401k and retirement investments took a beating. It's amazing, considering how much hard work and discipline went into saving for retirement, to watch it erode like the sand coming out from under you feet at the beach after a wave washes over them, then rushes back to the sea. Things will get back to normal.

Chloroquine is going to turn out to be an effective treatment for this virus. Effective treatment will be the game changer we need for things to get back to normal. Game changer.

Testing, 1,2,3. Testing 1,2,3. We were slow to get off the starting blocks with testing, but we sure are testing now. Not surprisingly, more tests are identifying more people infected with the virus. Many made valid critique of the Trump Administration's slow start in testing. They've rectified that. Yesterday I read that the tests that the Spaniards and Italians got from China are only 30% effective in identifying Coronavirus. Didn't anybody test those tests? Testing 1,2,3. Testing 1,2,3.

The news was bonkers last night. "The U.S. now has the highest number of confirmed Coronavirus cases in the world!" Well no shit. Testing 1,2,3. Testing 1,2,3. When you test more and more people, you find more and more cases. Does anyone really believe we have more cases than China does? You do? Have you been tested for stupidity? Testing 1,2,3. Testing 1,2,3.

I don't know that it will ever be proven, and it's more likely that even if it is the Chinese will deny it forever, but I believe Coronavirus was on the loose before December 2019/January 2020. Travelers to and from Wuhan transported the stuff around the world, and likely more like October or November of 2019, maybe even sooner.

The more testing we do, the lower the mortality rate will be. I'm not a scientist. I couldn't decipher the data even if I had it. But if we start wide scale, random testing, and can add testing for the Coronavirus antigens, too, meaning testing people who have an immunity, too, we will find out a lot more people had this crud than we ever thought. Yep. More Testing 1,2,3. Testing 1,2,3. We may even find out the severity of the reaction to it, closing businesses and all the rest, was overkill. But if you ask me, overkill to prevent deaths is erring on the right side of things.

I don't believe that this pandemic is the result of Chinese bio-warfare aimed at damaging our economy because we were gaining leverage and working toward an upper hand. Whether the origin was unsanitary food conditions or an escaped bio-weapon, who knows? If it was an accidental bio-weapon release, the Chinese will never admit it and we'll never prove it. But regardless, it doesn't seem plausible to me that the Chinese did this on purpose as part of their scheme of global domination. Stop thinking that.

Shame on the Congress and Senate for packing the relief package with pork. I advocate new legislation that under a national emergency any legislation to address a specific national emergency can ONLY include items specifically to address the emergency. If they want to make a deal on the side, that's one thing, but putting shit that has nothing to do with the emergency in there opportunistically? No. Stop doing that!

Nothing has happened, not one single thing, since this pandemic, that has made me wish that Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, or Michelle Obama, or anyone else, other than Trump was president right now. Nothing. Yeah, he calls the virus from China a Chinese Virus. Sure, they were quick to close the travel lanes from China, but a little slow to get the testing started. Yes, he presided over cutbacks to some of the previous federal bureaucracy that was in place. The team he assembled, and the work they are doing reassures me that those cutbacks were the right thing to do. In my wildest dreams I can't conjure up visions of Joe or Bernie briefing us on this crisis and feeling lucky they're at the helm. If you really, really do, then vote for them.

Drs. Birx and Fauci have been phenomenal in dealing with this pandemic and explaining it to us on a day to day basis. President Trump is well advised to keep them engaged and front and center. Each in their own way, I have become a huge admirer of both. I really don't give two shits if you don't like Fauci because he's a friend of Hillary Clinton. If you measure every single goddamned issue and person that way, you're no better than never-Trumpers and Resisters, a bunch of losers so blinded by partisanship that your morality, that your good vs. evil, is predicated more on who did it than what they did. Stop doing that! It makes you look stupid.

And finally, I read a letter to the editor yesterday, I think it was in the Wall Street Journal. May have been the NY Post, I'm not sure. But the letter ended with this (paraphrased): "It's time to stop fighting each other, we have this virus to fight." I get a sense that so many want to be on the winning side of a win-lose equation in which Trump is the loser, that they'll take illogical and detrimental positions just because those positions counter Trump's. Trump's rising approval numbers during this crisis show that it's not working. Trump's handling of this crisis will get him re-elected, if you ask me. We're in uncharted waters here. Irrational second-guessing predicated on your hatred of the man is largely unconvincing and ineffective.

3/23/2020: The Wuhan Covid-19 Era, Era of the Selfish Bastards!

A lot of us have had a hard time working through the new social distancing. There are people in hospitals and nursing homes who can't have visitors, and their families are at home, enduring the painful sadness that they can't visit. People are losing their jobs, having hours cut, and in some cases, losing a loved one. A lot of people have shown their true colors this last few weeks, some for the good. After early partisan jousting, NY Governor Cuomo, someone I'm not a big fan of, and President Trump have shown good leadership and cooperation, setting aside their partisanship to work together to address vital needs during this crisis. That's just two examples of MANY, MANY who have stepped up for the good of the people. Some haven't. This post is for the rotten, selfish bastards.

Florida Spring Break Selfish Bastards

How about the selfish bastard spring breaker selfish bastards? Are they some selfish bastards, or what? To anyone under the age of 40 or so: if you're thinking you're not at risk, you got shit you want to do, so you're going to do it, you know what? You're a stupid selfish bastard. One selfish bastard spring breaker went full selfish bastard on television, explaining how he'd been looking forward to spring break for two months, no way he was letting it slip away. I wanted to smack that little selfish bastard back to wherever his selfish bastard ass came from.

Then there are the grocery store selfish bastards. Toilet paper! Affectionately called 'shitpaper' in my Marine Corps days, what kind of selfish bastard needs 100, 200, or 300 rolls of toilet paper at one time? Only a major league asshole of a selfish bastard needs 200 rolls of toilet paper.

Store Shelves Ransacked By Grocery Store Selfish Bastards

Yesterday, or maybe it was Saturday, I saw a picture on Twitter of a selfish bastard woman at a Kroger with a grocery basket full to the brim with chicken.

Greedy Rotten Selfish Bastard Selfishly Depriving Other Shoppers of Chicken

Now, I'm not sure, but this selfish bastard's selfish bastard family isn't going to eat all this chicken in one selfish sitting. I'm quite fed up with these selfish bastards, if you haven't already picked up on it. So, to all you selfish bastards everywhere: go to selfish bastard hell. I hope you like Selfish Bastard Hell's provisions, where everything is in short supply, and there are other selfish bastards all around you who have everything you need in massively excessive quantities. Of coarse, they're selfish bastards, too, and won't share, but they will offer to sell your selfish bastard self all the chicken, ass wipes, toilet paper and hand sanitizers you need at a 1000% markup. Short of cash? You poor, unfortunate selfish bastard. You're shit out of luck, you selfish bastard.

3/20/2020 - Don't Believe China!

For the last couple of days I've seen a number of stories in U.S. media touting the success of the Chinese in dealing with the Wuhan or Chinese coronavirus. Even though I'm not supposed to be touching my face, I find my palm on my forehead each time I see one. People: they were lying to us then, they're lying to us now. But hey, if you want to extol the great successes of the Chi-Coms on the one hand, and on the other criticize the US response, then you go for it. I don't know everything about this virus, or about what goes on in China, or even what all we are and aren't doing. But if you're complimenting the Chinese and criticizing us simultaneously, your logic is contorted to fit your bias.

Wall Street Journal Photo

What if the virus was spreading around Wuhan and China months BEFORE we first learned of it? Supposedly the first case was December 1, 2019. Do we know for sure how the supposed first person contracted it? The person wasn't at the market from where the first cluster of cases is 'believed' to have come, some four weeks or so later. I put believed as a quotation because I don't believe the Chinese even a little. I suspect it is entirely possible that not only was there human to human transmission of the virus taking place in Wuhan BEFORE December, 2019. And supposing that to be the case, who's to say the virus wasn't carried abroad from Wuhan much sooner than we have been thinking?

Do we know that there weren't undiagnosed or incorrectly diagnosed cases of WuFlu in the US prior to Jan 14th, which according to the US Center for Disease Control, was the date of the first case in the US? I don't know, but I doubt it. The disease isn't severe in all demographic groups. What if a lot of what we thought was normal 'flu season' was actually the first appearances of WuFlu? One thing I've learned from this pandemic is that there is way more international air travel to and from Wuhan, a place frankly I'd never heard of before this, than even after I had heard of it, that I'd have guessed.

Now, this may be a little far-fetched, so I am not asserting it is true, but do you remember what happened last April? A Chinese national woman was arrested trying to enter Mar A Lago. What if? I mean, holy crap! What if? Do you remember in January of this year, a Harvard professor was arrested for espionage? The story centers around recruitment of US scientists to work for the Chinese where? Wuhan. And if I recall, the story also mentioned smuggling vials of biological materials out of the US to China. I'm not sure what, if anything, these stories have to do with Wuhan coronavirus, but it's stuff that makes me go, "Hmmmm?"

Sure, those incident likely had nothing to do with any of this. Can we rule it out? Should we? The Chinese have been up to no good for a long, long time. And even if those things  had nothing to do with anything, don't be the Resistance douchebag reporter extolling China's efforts and progress in fighting back the Chinese virus, and turn around and bash the US response. I know you hate Trump. I know you swoon over the magical mystery of life in a communist paradise. But, as I touched in passing, I also know you're a douchebag. Stop believing China, douchebags! And stop believing these douchebags, people!

No Camping: Coronavirus Rules

Travel trailer vacations aren't looking as good as they did a few days ago, as state by state yesterday announced closures their state park campgrounds. This no doubt will affect our travel plans, and the plans of many, many thousands of others. No doubt the impact is greater on full-time RVers, who are far more in numbers than I ever thought until I started preparing for our own adventures.

In addition, other curfews and closures are announced here, there, everywhere, seemingly by the minute. Schools, churches, social clubs, and self-help groups are canceling meetings or offering virtual alternatives. Many of you are working at home, others are still in the office, shop, or store, but working with an abundance of precaution and care. Restaurants and bars in many places have greatly reduced seating, with food being offered to go, but no dining in allowed. I'm sure employee hours are being cut and some places may already have layoffs. Amazon announced it's hiring 100,000. An Amazon job may not be many people's cup of tea, but it shows there may be opportunities out there for people who need the work and money, if they're willing.

Caroline and I went to the Punta Gorda Walmart the other day. I was impressed. They were out of the stuff you keep hearing about: hand sanitizers and surface sanitizer/cleaners. They were also low on some of the staples: various meats, soups, etc., but the only thing on our list that we couldn't get, since we knew we wouldn't get and didn't bother with the TP or sanitizers, was pasta. And we do have pasta on the shelf, so it wasn't an immediate need. One thing I want to mention about that visit to Walmart is about the employees. I could see the Walmart employees looked stressed out, but with no exceptions, they were working hard and remained helpful and cheerful. I made it a point to say hi, tell them I could see how hard they were working, and to thank them. I did so to five or six, and I got very friendly and appreciated thanks from them all for it.

Before I wind this post up, I recognize I've nearly broken the golden rule. I've nearly concluded a post about the Covid-19 Coronavirus, the Wuhan Flu, and haven't encouraged you to wash your hands. Can't do that! And also, to encourage you to be nice to the stressed out people where you shop, eat, and do other business. Check in on your elderly neighbors. With proper precautions, a little kindness, and maybe just a little prayer, we will surely get through this.

So please, please, please: wash your hands. A lot.  Have a great day, friends! God bless.

Losing Sleep Over Covid-19

I am not panicking because of this damned virus. That being said, I am finding the situation troubling enough that last night I felt stressed out, same as I did during the most difficult of times in the past. I had trouble getting to sleep, and this morning found myself awake at 4:25. I haven't felt this way since retirement.

First and foremost, I'm worried about my parents. I don't know that they'll catch the virus, but if it spreads half as much as some of the worst projections indicate, my mom and stepfather will be in great danger. After much thought and considerable anxiety over the decision, I canceled our trip to visit this week so I can be sure I won't be the one who exposes them to it. But for them at 81, she'll be 82 this coming Friday, and 90, respectively, I don't know that they're capable of self-quarantine to the extent they'd need to to stay clear of it. I saw a news report last night in which the Governor of California has asked all people in his state over 65 to self quarantine. Meanwhile they're still going to the grocery, playing golf, dining socially with friends. Even if I were to drive over weekly to do their shopping so they could quarantine in place, I don't think they would at this point. Am I the only one worried about their parents this way?

Then there's my trip to Italy and cruise of the Mediterranean. Cancelled early of our own good sense, we were inconvenienced. But looking forward, I believe our travel plans for the next month or two have to change, too. We had been planning to drive up to Louisville, spend a week or so up there, then to drive back down with our granddaughter, and spend a week and half or so here with her, before bringing her back. While she was to be here we planned on a visit to mom's and a day trip to Disney, the Magic Kingdom. As of now, I'm sure Disney is off, I'm not even sure making two round trips driving is a great idea, either. I told Caroline last night if we drive up to see Harper and the kids, we'd likely be better off spending the week and a half up there and saving at least one round trip. Am I the only one who's worried about travel this way?

Then there's the economy. I feel like we're watching a train wreck in slow motion. This past weekend was just one announcement of either businesses cutting back in response to how the virus is affecting them, half empty airplanes and hotels, restaurants and bars, etc. On top of that, cruise lines canceling operations for a month, and various states announcing curfews and mandatory closures of restaurants and bars. As badly as my investments have been affected so far, I think the worst is yet to come. And as far as the business closures go, both self-imposed and government mandated, I see a terrible double-edged sword type dilemma leadership is facing making and mandating the closures: nobody in a leadership position can afford to under-react to the virus. If the worst projections did turn out to be true, and they contribute by under-reacting, the blaming and second guessing will be fatal to their business and political interests, on top of the toll in lives. And even if it's not as bad as predicted, these steps being taken to close up in case it is, are sure to ripple through the economy and put many businesses and livelihoods at risk. I'm worried about the worldwide economy being decimated as an outcome of this, no matter how the next 6 months or so plays out.

I'm more pissed off than worried by how some people are acting during this crisis. First, there are too many young adults who think it's no big deal and are doing their best to completely ignore it. It's not likely to kill a 30 year old man or woman, and they have to go on living, right? So there are some, even some WITH the virus, living life as if nothing is going on, nothing is changing. And maybe they're in the end going to be proven right. But I don't think so. It's pretty goddamned selfish to be ignoring this whole thing. "It ain't gonna kill me, so what the fuck?" Asshole! And then there's the second thing. Hoarding food, cleaners, hand sanitizers, toilet paper? I mean, damn. Stores are low on supplies, having to adjust hours, not only so they can clean the places up and try to sanitize, but to restock shelves, too. I just can't believe the selfish bastards. Some of the worst offenders are damned near criminal. I saw a story about a guy who had bought up 17,700 or so bottles of hand sanitizer to sell aftermarket after making significant price markups. There's something called entrepreneurial spirit, but there's also predatory price gouging. I worry that a crisis too often brings out the worst in people.

And then there's the politics. I can't stand the politics anymore. I'm angry about the politics and I should let it go, maybe laugh it off, but I can't. It's no joke. Has the Trump Administration been perfect 10's across the board on this? No, they haven't, he hasn't. The situation was, is, and will continue to be fluid. As the virus shifted from a threat to a pandemic, so too has the response. I felt much better about the way the situation was being handled after the briefing on Friday, but there's no stopping the political opportunists who, as the cliché says, "never let a good crisis go to waste". You can convince me that President Obama, Secretary Hillary Clinton had she won in 2016, and either VP Joe Biden or Senator Bernie Sanders, if either of them was President, would have done different: more here, less there. But you can't convince me that any one of the four, if President right now, would have less cases of Covid-19 in our country right now. Sure, if you're one of their loyalists or supporters, you probably truly believe that would be the case. Well, for every expert you find who supports that notion, there's another somewhere who'll contradict them. And the bottom line is, it is what it is, and what it would be under some other 'hypothetical' president is unprovable. Our politics is poison, and a crisis forces us to drink some of it. It's disgusting.

So, what can I do, can we do, in addition to just losing sleep? Sure, wash our hands. Of course we can do and should do that. We can self-quarantine to the extent we can, employing social distancing. We can be nice and considerate to one another. We can call and check up on each other. We can heed the warnings and advice of our local, city, state, and federal government officials as best as we can. We can be stressed out, but have to find ways to stay calm, and to not panic. Losing sleep is one thing, freaking out and scaring people with off the wall conspiracy theories and fake news info is quite another. We need to take this damned threat seriously, look out for one another, but stay as calm and collected as possible. Road-raging and freaking out at the checkout at Walmart or Publix? It won't help. Hoarding 17,700 bottles of sanitizer? Nope. Not that, either.

I hope some of you got a better night's sleep than I did last night. Have a great day, friends. God bless.