4/16/2020 The Ever Improving CCP Virus Worst Case Scenario

As the worst case scenario number of hospitalizations and deaths from the CCP virus steadily and continually declines, it calls into question the wisdom of destroying the world's economy. The shutdowns always were and still are primarily intended to protect our hospitals and medical personnel from being completely overwhelmed and overcome my multitudes of sick and dying people. Well, it has worked. I personally believe the closures and social distancing guidelines were well intended. I think people vilifying Drs. Fauci and Birx, the President, and anyone else in this country for their efforts up till now are off target.

Be that as it may, we are rapidly approaching a point of even deeper and irreparable harm to our economy and way of life. We need desperately to open our economy back up as soon as we can. Two more weeks until the end of April, and if the trend continues as far as projections and corrections of the models based on improved data assumptions, I suggest a phased approach to opening for business.

Older people, like me and older, and people with various co-morbidities (co-morbidity is a word that I've unfortunately learned during this pandemic) need to continue social distancing and isolating, maybe for a month, two months, even three months longer. Time will tell what the right amount of time is. But schools, stores, restaurants, places of worship, and all manner and sort of other places of business and social activity need to begin to open their doors soon, or they may remain shuttered forever. I'm advocating a phased approach. Maybe we go back to half the shutdowns we have now for a month, then a quarter for a month or two more, I don't know the right percentages or timing. I'm just illustrating a phased approach. And when you do go back to work, shopping, church, etc., you can't go hang out with grandma and grandpa until they're clear of the risk of infection. That part sucks, but it is going to have to be that way in a phased approach.

It's getting to be that time. Thus far everything we've done has been, again in my humble opinion, in good faith and based on avoiding worst case scenarios that were projected at the time decisions were made. But as the hospital ships, makeshift and temporary hospitals, ventilators and other medical equipment, etc., are used in much lower quantities than was feared necessary and for which provisions were made, it becomes a building block to get back to "business as usual", whatever the new usual will turn out to be when this is over.

And when this is over, even though I know this won't happen, I urge that we stop fighting each other: red states vs. blue, rural vs. urban, left vs. right, GOP vs. Dems, Trump vs. the press, etc., and instead we work together to address the things we've learned. I would start with 1) limiting our dependence on China for medical supplies, medicines, food, and technology, especially military technology, and 2) codifying who has what authority and what are the responsibilities at the federal, state, and local levels. I don't believe establishing and standing up a bloated bureaucracy to wait for the next pandemic, which could hopefully be a decade or more off, is the right answer. But neither do I advocate a short memory span inspired "head in the sand" approach, either.

One last thought: how can we ever get things right when we're more interested in who's right than we are in what's right? What's right right about now is for us to keep our spirits up, help our neighbors, and as the data becomes more accurate, to open the US for business when and where we can.

Have a great day, friends! Stay safe. You CAN still catch this stuff if you're not careful. God bless.