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Monday, November 9, 2020

11/9/2020 A Mail In Ballot Fact of Life

Just a quick hitter this morning about the use of mail-in ballots on a massive scale. Set aside the whole debate and all the legal action going on about mail-in voting in the 2020 General Election. I'm not claiming those things didn't happen, or that none of it will be proven, but I'm skeptical that President Trump's legal challenges will change the outcome. And for all the talk bout mail in and absentee ballots, there is very little about an aspect of it I believe to be a nearly undeniable truth.

President Trump's supporters, in pre-election poll after poll expressed more enthusiasm for voting for President Trump than did Joe Biden's. In a normal election year without the virus, it's likely that a percentage, probably small but significant of those less enthusiastic voters might not have made it to the polls. But absentee voting is easy, especially when your state doesn't need you to expend the minimal effort it would take to request an absentee ballot. You simply check your mailbox one day and a ballot is there. After filling in a few bubbles with a black or blue ball point pen, you put it into the postage pre-paid envelope provided, sign it on the flap, seal it closed, then put it back out for your mail carrier to pick up. Voila! You just voted. Or maybe your adult children living at home weren't inclined to vote. A household that would have yielded 2 votes at the polls yields 3 or 4 with just a small bit of parental encouragement with the mail-in system.

Again, putting aside concerns about fraud or ballot box stuffing, Democrats were genius for pushing everyone to mail-in voting in the year of Covid-19. Nobody should disregard the impact on the election of getting ballots back from a large number of (slightly?) less enthusiastic voters had on the outcome. And if mail-in voting becomes a norm in our country, then campaigns and candidate marketing strategies have to either find means of appealing to these voters, or be left holding the bag at traditional polling places.  President Trump and Republicans made a case against mail-in that had "Vote at the polls on Election Day" as its punchline. It probably didn't change their final tally much. Democrats encouraged voters to vote by mail from the very beginning, switching only to encourage people to go to the polls for early voting or on Election Day only AFTER cultivating a significant mail-in response. The record turnout was in part due to voter enthusiasm, either for or against Trump, and due to Democrats, mostly, executing an effective mail-in strategy during the pandemic.

GOP: the future is here. Mail-in isn't going away. Get on board or be left behind sulking. Your choice.

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