4/23/2020 Hindsight is 20/20

As time passes, as we learn that more and more of our previous assumptions were incorrect, we need to constantly reassess where we are at NOT according to the plans made based on those old assumptions, but rather, based on revised plans that take into account new facts as they become known. One of my fears in the midst of all this, is that pride gets in the way of making new, proper decisions. What I mean is that if the right answer from last week isn't right now based on new information, our leaders can't allow criticism for last weeks decisions, which were presumably based on the best information available at the time, prevent us from making a course correction now based on the new information now on hand. The link below is to a Politico article which points to CCP Virus deaths weeks before what we've been assuming to have been the first.

Politico Article 

If the timeline turns out to have been wrong, which appears to be the case, then they need to go back to the starting point and make all the appropriate adjustments to the timeline based on the update. Similarly, if the fatality rate is wrong by major proportions, which the two recent antigen/antibody studies in California seem to indicate is true, then those adjustments to the modeling also need to be made. And once the models are corrected and adjusted, everything we're doing and not doing, because some of us damned sure aren't doing a lot of stuff, needs to be adjusted if needed, too.

Early Covid-19 Timeline. Complete?

Is it time to start some openings on a careful and selective basis? I believe it is. The closures, the social distancing, etc. were never about keeping a lid on the virus until is was wiped out. It was to protect hospital and medical capacities, so the people and resources weren't to be overwhelmed, The curve WAS flattened, hospitals are running well UNDER capacity across the country. They didn't run out of ventilators, beds, etc., as was feared. I know that some of you fear reopening our economy, and there is some validity to your fears. Those fears have to be balanced against the potentially irreparable harm already done to our economy and the devastation to the economy sure to come if the closure of our economy and the worldwide economy are held in check for an extended period of time. I believe if you're waiting for a vaccine before you'll support reopening the economy, you may be well intended, but we'll be in full on economic ruin by the time we have one. And if you're waiting for a point in time when there will be no more deaths due to the CCP Virus, you're waiting for a someday that is NEVER coming. Never, not in a million years, it just ain't happening. Sorry.

One last thought on reopening: it's not an easy decision. If things are reopened too fast in certain locations, there are possibly dire health consequences. On the other hand, keeping people at home in that same place or others will have severe social and economic consequences. As I said in another forum the other day, New York and New Jersey aren't Wyoming and Montana. Iowa isn't Florida, or California, or Illinois, either. I'll leave you with this rhetorical question I heard posed the other day: we closed Wyoming and Montana because of a devastating health crisis in New York and New Jersey. Do you really think if the epicenter of the crisis was Wyoming and Montana that New York and New Jersey, the New York City metropolitan area, would have been closed if the crisis wasn't there, but was out there in the mountain west? I don't. What's right for one state, city, or region may not be right someplace else.

What we learn tomorrow may undermine everything we think we know today. Hindsight is 20/20. I hope our leaders learn as we go and aren't hampered by pride to change or reverse course.