6/25/2020 Virus Numbers Are on the Rise

Yes, the CCP Virus numbers are up. According to my television, the number of new infections is a new record. Here's my opinion why they're up, in no specific order:

1. Relaxed restrictions. Businesses have started to open. People are interacting more socially.
2. People are being careless. Since restrictions got lifted, it's over, right? Probably, right? Oh.
3. Testing. We're testing a lot of people. A lot more people than before, including asymptomatic people who would NOT have gotten tested 2-3 month ago for lack of ample testing to so so.

At the same time, there has been a steady decline in fatalities from CCP Virus for two straight months. It's been as steady as any Eddie. And while there is some overlap with increased detection, driving the mortality rate down, with the new rise in cases detected, I don't think the whole story has unfolded yet.

I've been saying for a long time that cumulative numbers are purely sensational and we shouldn't fret about them as an indicator of the present situation. So pretty much I ignore the cumulative numbers. Where are we now is way more important to get to where we're going than a catalog of everywhere we've been. And where we are now is a rising number of new cases detected for the three reasons I listed above. Blame whichever you think is most culpable, but it's all of the above and the numbers are hard to unravel. I'm lumping the protests and Memorial Day parties some into #1 and mostly into #2.

How worried am I about the growth in new cases? I'd say the jury is still hearing evidence, it's not even "out" yet. What I am most interested in now is seeing how the rise in cases correlates to fatalities, which show up a couple of weeks to a month later. I've read that the new infections are often in younger persons than was the case before, many in their 20's, 30's, and 40's. This group is less likely to be killed by the virus and may constitute a large number whose infections in previous months went undetected because they weren't testing asymptomatic people. No, not the same people, the same demographic group. And second, I read that the present strains of the virus may be less fatal than the earlier ones were. Viruses mutate, and I guess it isn't in their best interest to kill their hosts, putting an end to transmission from them. That's not something I'm an expert in, but it does make sense in explaining why the current mutations are less deadly, if indeed that is true.

I read the other day that year over year fatalities for 2020 compared to 2019, year to date, we are at 103%, or up 3% over last year. When you compare various states in the same manner, some have less deaths than 2019, some the same, some up a little, and New York, which is way up. I think the New York nursing home blunder was probably the single biggest mistake of the entire pandemic in the US. It is explainable, so I am not being specifically critical of Governor Coumo or anyone else, but in hindsight it was a major blunder. Those elderly, at risk people were the last people who needed to be exposed to the CCP Virus, not the first.

Florida new cases are up. The local news last night was going bonkers over new cases. My county had 13 new cases on the 23rd, a week prior on the 16th we had 6, a week prior on the 9th, just 2. ON the 2nd there were 11. Overall cases here in Florida and Charlotte County are up.

So, what am I gonna do about it? I'm going to be careful. I had to travel to s funeral in upstate NY, so I'm in self-imposed quarantine. My mom and step-dad are in the most at risk age group, so if I want to spend any time with them, that's what I have to do. I've sort of come to think the masks we wear shopping or traveling or wherever are mostly symbolic. So I'm hanging at home.

Stay safe. Call me if you need me.