6/29/2020 "All I Want is Some Truth, Just Gimme Some Truth"

Does anyone out there know what the lag time is in the trends from new CCP Virus positive tests to CCP Virus fatalities? Please, friends, I am NOT looking to debate wearing masks or closures or openings or anything else about the virus. I am trying to understand how long the trend in new cases leads the correlated number of deaths.

Why? Because the surge in new cases in my state is being reported breathlessly. When are deaths associated with this surge supposed to happen? Two weeks? Three weeks? A month? Six weeks? Two months?

I am NOT saying a surge in daily CCP Virus deaths WON'T happen. But if it does, will it be larger or smaller than anticipated? Why? And if we can indeed say that it's larger or smaller than anticipated, exactly what was anticipated? Where are those numbers? I don't see those projections anywhere.

Lastly, if a surge in new deaths DOES or DOESN'T happen in the manner you're expecting, who is lying to you and why did they do that? Did you fall for lies about the virus, one way or another? Whose lies? Be honest. Do you feel stupid now for falling for leftist lies or right wing propaganda? I am looking for truth. I don't give a rat's ass if it confirms my biases or contradicts them. And I don't give a rat's ass if the truth contradicts your biases, either. Do you?

I'm reminded of a John Lennon song from 50 or so years ago.  "All I want is some truth, Just gimme some truth" (Lyrics are from memory. Apologies is inaccurate)

6/27/2020 Who’s the Masked Man?

I’m not arguing against masks, and if a bullshit make debate breaks out here I’ll just delete this. I’ve been wearing surgical masks when I go places. But here’s my honest question:

I understand N95 masks filter what you breathe in, but not what you exhale, so if someone has the virus and wears one, when they exhale it isn’t filtered out, it’s expelled into the environment.

And I also read that surgical masks filter when you breathe out, not in. To keep sterile ORs sterile. So if you’re in an infected environment they may not help you as well as an N95 would. I also read that surgical masks, due to moisture we exhale, need to be swapped out every 1/2 hour or so.

And lastly, the cloth masks many of us are using don’t do much to help at all.

So what kind of mask are you using, and what do you recommend someone else who’s being cautious and considerate should use to protect themselves AND minimize transmitting the virus to someone else?

I’m not fighting the masks. I’m just confused as all get up. I don’t have a lot of faith on the masks, but I’m virtue signaling and also wearing one to avoid criticism. In truth I’ve decided staying isolated works better for me than a mask does. But that’s just me.

“Who’s that?”
“Where?”
“Over there! Him?”
“Yeah, him. Who’s that masked man?”

6/26/2020 On Facemasks and Lockdowns in the Age of the Virus. Maybe.

I haven't been outspoken one way or another about either the issue of wearing masks in public, or about about forced business closures or government mandated stay at home orders, either. Quite simply, I don't feel personally qualified to say which is right and which is wrong. I have friends who are adamant about both topics, and adamant on both sides of both of them. Yes! Wear masks! No! No Masks! Yes! Stay at home! No! Go out! It's mind boggling. So, even though I admit I'm not an expert, and that I freely admit I'm not qualified to give advice on either issue, here is what I think.

On masks: if we all wear the right masks it seems logical to me that transmission of this virus will be reduced. Well, we aren't ALL wearing them, and MOST of us aren't wearing the right masks. Yesterday when I was tested for the CCP Virus, the guy in front of me online was clearly sick. His wife said he'd had a fever for 2 days. He was wearing a mask and so was I. I was still scared shitless just to be in line with him. I guess that told me that deep down I don't have confidence the mask will protect me. On the other hand, if I wasn't wearing a mask, surely I'd have left. What I did do was avoid standing anywhere within 10 feet of him, and I avoided standing downwind of him, too. At one point the guy behind me asked me to move up closer to the sick guy so that he could get into a tree-shaded spot near in front of me. I said, "Sorry, the guy in front odf me is sick, and I'm not moving any closer to him than I have to." He didn't argue. So, I'm not going to tell you to wear a mask or to not wear one. I don't know that the shitty non-medical grade masks we're mostly all wearing help much. I put them in the 'better than nothing' category. They may even be 'barely better than nothing'. But if you have yours on and I have mine on, I'm going to say it's better than nothing.

As for the stay at home and close your businesses orders from the various states, I've withheld criticism for the most part. But here's where I will be critical: they told us we were flattening the curve to protect hospital and medical assets from being overwhelmed and rendered comletely ineffectual due to lack of capacity, staff, and equipment/supplies. And for the most part, with the exception of some hospitals in New York (not all of them, SOME of them), this was effective. But somewhere along the line the 15 days to flatten the curve turned into months, and it became obvious that we weren't flattening the curve anymore, we were waiting for a vaccine or a cure. I don't know that we'd have been so readily willing to comply with closures and stay at home orders initially if they said it was for months, maybe a year, until there is a vaccine or a cure. If you were to ask me if I thought they were doing the right thing, I'd have answered "Maybe." Why maybe?

Because if I had to say what I thought we should have done and what should we be doing, stipulating that I agree that I am NOT as qualified as people making arguments for or against lockdowns, closures, and stay at home orders, my vote would be to protect people with higher than average risk to this virus: elderly, people with one or more co-morbidities, etc., and let the rest of the people carry on with their lives until we reached herd immunity. I have my doubts whether the lockdowns saved all that many lives, or if they just delayed the inevitable. I guess that's partly because they were sold to us as flattening the curve, not waiting for a vaccine or cure. But, I admit I'm a layman, and I have heard experts advocate both sides of this, and each case was made convincingly. Mostly they're argueing for or against lockdowns. I've seen very few proposing targeted measures that protect the vulnerable and let life go on otherwise, although the case I heard for it was the one that swayed my opinion best of all of them.

One last simple observation about the debate about both masks and social restrictions: it's amazing how clean the break is on issues related to the pandemic, especially on lockdowns, but on the masks, too, to some extent. My leftward leaning friends are pretty much uniformly for the restrictions and from the right the opposite. My simple explanation for that is that my friends on the left are far more comfortable relying on government for their safety and well being than those on the right are. To the left it's the government's job to look after us and protect us. My friends on the right tend more toward, "Don't tell me what to do, I'll take care of me, you take care of you, and I'll take my own risks, thank you very much." Oddly, neither side seems to be arguing for or against the approach of protect the vulnerable, let life go on for the rest of us, and we'll reach herd immunity sooner. The position I like best. So, as long as nobody's arguing for or against my preferable course of action, I'll just continue to scroll past most of your debates on it when I see them. Maybe.

6/25/2020 Virus Numbers Are on the Rise

Yes, the CCP Virus numbers are up. According to my television, the number of new infections is a new record. Here's my opinion why they're up, in no specific order:

1. Relaxed restrictions. Businesses have started to open. People are interacting more socially.
2. People are being careless. Since restrictions got lifted, it's over, right? Probably, right? Oh.
3. Testing. We're testing a lot of people. A lot more people than before, including asymptomatic people who would NOT have gotten tested 2-3 month ago for lack of ample testing to so so.

At the same time, there has been a steady decline in fatalities from CCP Virus for two straight months. It's been as steady as any Eddie. And while there is some overlap with increased detection, driving the mortality rate down, with the new rise in cases detected, I don't think the whole story has unfolded yet.

I've been saying for a long time that cumulative numbers are purely sensational and we shouldn't fret about them as an indicator of the present situation. So pretty much I ignore the cumulative numbers. Where are we now is way more important to get to where we're going than a catalog of everywhere we've been. And where we are now is a rising number of new cases detected for the three reasons I listed above. Blame whichever you think is most culpable, but it's all of the above and the numbers are hard to unravel. I'm lumping the protests and Memorial Day parties some into #1 and mostly into #2.

How worried am I about the growth in new cases? I'd say the jury is still hearing evidence, it's not even "out" yet. What I am most interested in now is seeing how the rise in cases correlates to fatalities, which show up a couple of weeks to a month later. I've read that the new infections are often in younger persons than was the case before, many in their 20's, 30's, and 40's. This group is less likely to be killed by the virus and may constitute a large number whose infections in previous months went undetected because they weren't testing asymptomatic people. No, not the same people, the same demographic group. And second, I read that the present strains of the virus may be less fatal than the earlier ones were. Viruses mutate, and I guess it isn't in their best interest to kill their hosts, putting an end to transmission from them. That's not something I'm an expert in, but it does make sense in explaining why the current mutations are less deadly, if indeed that is true.

I read the other day that year over year fatalities for 2020 compared to 2019, year to date, we are at 103%, or up 3% over last year. When you compare various states in the same manner, some have less deaths than 2019, some the same, some up a little, and New York, which is way up. I think the New York nursing home blunder was probably the single biggest mistake of the entire pandemic in the US. It is explainable, so I am not being specifically critical of Governor Coumo or anyone else, but in hindsight it was a major blunder. Those elderly, at risk people were the last people who needed to be exposed to the CCP Virus, not the first.

Florida new cases are up. The local news last night was going bonkers over new cases. My county had 13 new cases on the 23rd, a week prior on the 16th we had 6, a week prior on the 9th, just 2. ON the 2nd there were 11. Overall cases here in Florida and Charlotte County are up.

So, what am I gonna do about it? I'm going to be careful. I had to travel to s funeral in upstate NY, so I'm in self-imposed quarantine. My mom and step-dad are in the most at risk age group, so if I want to spend any time with them, that's what I have to do. I've sort of come to think the masks we wear shopping or traveling or wherever are mostly symbolic. So I'm hanging at home.

Stay safe. Call me if you need me.

6/24/2020-2 Justice is Served!

The appeals court has issued the Writ of Mandamus to Judge Sullivan. General Flynn is a free man.

6/24/2020 White Privilege, Colorblindness, and Aunt Jemima

So, let me see if I read it right. In simplest terms, the definition of white privilege is that there is bias and racism against black people, and that bias and racism NOT affecting white people is white privilege. This may better be described as, "the white advantage is in not having to deal with racial bias and racism against black people". I'm fine with all of that.

Here's where I personally draw the line for myself: I try not to be biased and racist myself, and I have made a promise to myself not to tolerate it silently if I stumble upon it. What I will NOT do, as a white guy, is take ownership of and feel guilty for the biases and transgressions of other white people who are not me. That's why I rankle at the way "white privilege" is used so often. "You think this..." or "You think that because of your privilege." To me to say that is  not very different from assuming a black person is disadvantaged simply because they're black, or as Joe Biden said, "poor kids are as smart as white kids."

I heard an interesting discussion on a Dan Bongino Show podcast last weekend. He was talking to Kira Davis, Red State Editor-At-Large. She said one problem in white people dealing with black people is they (she's black I assume) will say things like, "When I see you I don't see a black man (or woman), I just see a person." Apparently we think we're being good and righteous by talking and being that way, colorblind, so to speak. But she said that's where we're missing it. Black people, she said (paraphrasing from my recollection of the conversation), do see themselves in or from the context of being a black person, not as being just the same as the next person. So it's NOT about being colorblind and treating everybody fairly regardless of color. It's about recognizing and even appreciating that person's blackness, and then treating them with the same dignity, respect, kindness, etc., that any person is due. But it's not about being colorblind. I hate to say it, but hearing that was a bit of an eye opener. It was for me at least.

I don't know if any of that really means anything, but I sure as hell am going to miss Aunt Jemima's pancakes AND her syrup. That seems to me to be fixing something that ain't a problem and does NOTHING to help me understand what IS the problem and what I can do about it. If that's just my "white privilege" coming to the surface again, I can live with that.

6/23/2020 Some Things I Believe, and Some Things I Don't

I support black lives matter, but I don't support the Black Lives Matter activist group.

I believe what (former) officer Derek Chauvin did to George Floyd was murder, but even so, every cop interaction resulting in death (regardless of race) has to be looked at objectively and without prejudice.

I support police and justice system reform, but I don't support the foolish "defund the police" anarchy movement. Break down the "blue wall of silence" when a cop makes a mistake or worse, yes. Closing the station house for the same reason, stupid.

I support an accurate telling of our history, warts and all. I don't support erasing history because its persons were imperfect if judged by today's morality and said imperfections offend sensibilities. George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, Andrew Jackson, Abraham Lincoln, Teddy Roosevelt, Bill Clinton, and Donald Trump. If you hate what they did or do, write a book, don't burn one.

I believe in the right to peaceably assemble and to protest. I don't support looters, rioters, defacers, arsonists, assaulters, or intimidators, nor do I support apologists who try to explain away the violence and destruction, or protesters who facilitate those activities within their midst by not either intervening or disbursing when the looting, rioting, and violence break out.

I sometimes (often) cringe when I hear some of the stuff President Trump says. He hasn't said anything yet that makes me think voting for Joe Biden and putting more power into the hands of radical leftists by doing so is in our best interest. The riots and political upheaval going on right now, just the opposite. We CAN'T let that happen. We HAVE to re-elect Donald Trump, fake tan, Twitter bombs and all.