It Could Happen Sooner Than You Think - 8/10/2024

I have a hunch, I'll stop just short of a prediction, but no doubt this is what I expect to happen. Sometime around September 15th, maybe as late as October 15th, sooner than later in that window, President Joe Biden will resign for health reasons.

President Harris? It could happen sooner than you think.

He probably ought to have done so already based on his failed mental capacity, but that would have forced Vice President Harris to engage the press and American people meaningfully as President in ways that would expose who she is and what she is like, and they can't let that happen. A person who couldn't win over the voters in her own state in the 2020 Presidential Primary isn't going to win over America if she engages us forthrightly and directly. So for now, letting her hide in plain sight is her best way to victory moving forward.

But by mid-September, some of her honeymoon bounce in the polls may or will have receded a bit, and making her the first woman, and woman of color no less, to be President will energize her supporters.

I am not saying Joe will do this willingly, but he will do it. Heck, he didn't drop from the race willingly in the first place, but he did it. They'll pressure him about Hunter, or the 25th Amendment (again), or something else, and he'll do it to save face or his son's ass or maybe his own ass.

How likely my hunch is right? I'd say it's something more than a 50%, but less than a 75% likelihood. The nameless people who are really running our country in Joe Biden's cognitive absence will do anything to avoid a second Trump presidency.

Sep. 15-Oct. 15. President Harris. Mark it down.

Polls - 8/8/2024

Do you understand how poll sampling works?

A lot of polls are misleading because we don't know what the sample is or was. It makes a big difference. Without overcomplicating things, here's a quick explanation. It is more complicated than this.

Let's say a district has voter registration and or likely voter representation that is 35% Republican, 37% Democrat, and 28% Other or Independent. The district is said to be D+2. That's the basic breakdown, and a D+2 poll should (there IS error) accurately reflect the voters in that town, county, or state. But if you can find it, you might learn the poll says it is D+5. Essentially, the pollster talked to 3% more Democrats than what actually comprises the population. Now imagine the result of the poll has Harris at 50% and Trump at 48%. Can we make any inference based on the D+2 vs. D+5? I think we can.

Graphic showing samples.

The name of phenomena is "oversampling". Sometimes it's done to a large extent, as much as 5 or 6 points higher in one direction or the other, than the actual voter base. Why? To influence you, the electorate, plain and simple. If I think my candidate is losing, I will get discouraged and be less enthusiastic. My candidate's opponent's supporters, on the other hand, feel a freshening wind under their sails, and as a result, their enthusiasm is high. Enthusiasm and lack of enthusiasm are contagious.

It's more complicated than this. For now, the idea is to question the accuracy of the polls we see, and to question the motives of each pollster.

The next time you see a poll, whether your candidate is ahead in it or behind, remember, some polls are accurate, some aren't, sometimes purposefully so. Polls are commissioned by or conducted by someone, most likely someone with a vested income in an outcome. This makes it suspect, and it ought to be treated as such.

Tampon Tim's Stolen Valor - 8/7/2024

I served for 11 years in the U.S. Marines, almost 9 of them on Active Duty, and a couple more with the Marine Corps Reserve. I joined in 1978, and I left my reserve unit in 1990 when a change in my civilian employment necessitated a cross country move.

Many times in the 34 years hence I have had to correct someone who incorrectly assumed I was a Vietnam Vet. "No, I came in after that." Other times I've been asked, "Were you in Vietnam?" I've also been asked about the Gulf War, Desert Shield and Desert Storm. "No, I left my reserve unit right before it started." I thought there was a good chance, since my separation was real recent at the time that I'd be recalled to duty, but I wasn't.

Because I had done more than a single 4 year enlistment, I've had some people, even guys I served with, assume I am a USMC retiree. "You have a retired ID, right?" I don't, I'm not. In one of life's unfortunate twists and turns, the geographic move in 1990 was the end of my service, and I didn't earn the title, USMC (ret'd).

I would never pretend to be either of those things. I am not a combat vet, I am not a retiree. I served honorably and I am very proud of the 11 good years I spent. The friendships still today are meaningful than many others in my life,  and certainly more numerous than any in the other 56 years.

J.D. Vance served in the Marine Corps. Unlike me, he legitimately served in a combat zone. He was a Combat Correspondent and he WAS deployed in a combat zone. Every Marine is a basic rifleman, and J.D. Vance served in a combat zone. That rings all the bells of legitimacy I need to hear. He's not out there pretending to have been a grunt or a recon Marine, but he out there proudly professing to be what he is and was, a USMC veteran who served in a combat zone.

Anyone who pretends to be those things who wasn't has severe integrity problems. I remember a UPS Manager, his name is irrelevant, who tried to pass himself off to me as a US Army special operator type. None of what he was telling me sounded legit, and sure enough it wasn't. He rose well above me in the organization, but I never respected him, trusted him, or let myself get close to him personally as a friend. I have too many friends who are all the things he pretended to be, and I have too much respect, admiration, and fondness for my friends to tolerate some asshole like him lying about being one of them.

Tampon Tim Walz, seen here wearing a camouflaged Special Forces cap. Some Special Forces folks havew noticed the cap. I was never Army Special Forces. I wouldn't wear it.

Tim Walz is another asshole stolen valor guy. I don't give two shits that he served in the Guard. That was a great thing right up till the minute he claimed he carried weapons of war in a war when the truth was he bolted from his unit when the war came to pass. You can make excuses for the motherfucker till the cows come home, but just like the UPS big shot I mentioned before, there's nothing you can do to make me respect his service now that he lied and passed himself off (many times, NOT a slip of the tongue) as a combat vet when he wasn't. You can make lame explanations, as lame as saying that someone with XY chromosomes is a woman (trust the science my ass!), but Tampon Tim is still a stolen valor guy, and that boxer? She's still a he.

 

Every Time I Think I Couldn't Possibly Hate Them More - 8/5/2024

I hear Jamie Raskin, a Democrat Congressman from Maryland, talk about a possible Trump election today. Referring to U.S. Constitution, Article 25, Section 3, which makes someone who participates in an insurrection ineligible, Raskin says it will be up to Congress on Jan 6th, 2025 to declare Donald Trump ineligible. He refers to "the Trump mob" and starting "a Civil War".

Raskin is Ready to Start a Civil War

Tough Talk from a Douchebag.

I swear, every time I hear assholes like Raskin, three things happen. First, I hate the left more than before. Second, I wonder, how my friends on the left support assholes like Raskin, and third, how dare Raskin and his kind lecture me about democracy. 

Let's review:

They tried to bankrupt Trump in the courts.

They have and are trying to put Trump in jail.

The ignored 15,000,000 Democrat voters and removed the nominee by threat of the 25th Amendment.

They installed a candidate who nobody voted for for President anywhere.

And now, if Trump wins, bring on the Trump mob and Civil War, because we in Congress will take him out on Jan 5, 2025.

Mr. Raskin, go fuck yourself.

 

Knocked Up Nannies and DEI Hires - 8/4/2024

I realize we're in a culture war, and that character assassination of candidates and their associates is the rule of the day. I do. I get it. But, I gotta tell you, it's nothing more than a sideshow. I don't care if Doug Emhoff fucked the nanny during his first marriage. I don't care if Joe Biden married his kid's nanny nor if Kamala fellated Willie Brown as a way to get a head. (see what I did there?)

Likewise, people calling Kamala Harris a "DEI hire" are missing an opportunity. But just like talking about who her husband used to fool around with, it's a fools errand to make that the focal point of your argument against Vice President Harris. And for what it's worth, she's half Asian (Indian), and she's half Black (Jamaican). The fact that she chameleons her way back and forth between the two based on her audience for political reasons doesn't have a thing to do with her competence or leadership abilities.

It's been two weeks since she took the forefront as the presumptive Democratic Party Nominee.

She has done no meaningful interviews with any journalists, and when she does, I am quite confident it will ONLY be with absolute friendlies. There will be fluff questions and softballs tee'd up for her, but no difficult, probing questions that expose her EXTREME lack of depth, foolish and unworkable proposals, and laughable flip-flopping now for votes.

She was installed as the nominee without a primary process because Joe Biden's incapacitation due to dementia was exposed. (How in the hell is he still President? YGBSM!)

Donald Trump, if he can set aside the nastiness like he did when he exposed Biden's dementia, will also expose her. And they know it and she knows it. That's why this phony bullshit narrative about the debate is being pushed by Harris' people. I saw headlines from NYT, WaPo and others claiming Trump is backing out of a debate with her. That's a lie and they know it.

Donald Trump had agreed to debate Joe Biden. Joe Biden dropped out of the race due to the dementia that Harris was and is party to covering up and keeping from the American people. He never agreed to debate Kamala Harris. Her repeated instances of meaningless word salad being posited as profound won't work in a debate with Trump. Let's review the bidding:

1. The Border and Immigration. They're right when they say she wasn't the Border Czar. You know why? Because she still is the Border Czar. Show me where the responsibilities were removed and assigned to someone else. The border is an absolute embarrassment and a disaster. It is Joe Biden and Kamala Harris' fault.

2. Foreign Policy. The only person I could imagine being weaker than Joe Biden on foreign policy as President would be Kamala Harris. She'll be a disaster. Unmitigated. Total.

3. The Economy. Harris comes across to me as a socialist/communist type when it comes to the economy. She's a California liberal, progressive leftist, race baiting disaster waiting to happen. If you think the inflation was bad under Joe Biden, just wait. Kamala Harris will bring California fuel prices to the rest of us. Watch the devastating ripple effect through our economy.

4. The Joe Biden Cover-Up. Kamala Harris knows and has known we have a mostly incapacitated geriatric with rapidly advancing dementia. He is NOT capable of his duties in diplomacy, as Commander in Chief, or anything else. We are being ruled by committee, an unelected, anonymous committee. Kamala Harris knows this and was unwilling to step up and initiate a 25th Amendment removal, as specified in the US Constitution.

Nobody, not one single person, is more responsible for hiding Joe Biden's incapacitation due to dementia from the American people than Kamala Harris.

 All things considered, I hate to say it, but as bad as I think she'll be for our country, I think she could win. Democrats don't care about any of this stuff. They hate Trump. The media will enable her to say nothing about anything and everything and paint her as some kind of savior leader, none of which is close to the truth. But she ain't Trump, and folks who've gotten fat sucking the teat of propaganda misinformation and disinformation from our press aren't inclined to think critically for themselves.

Addendum: I saw this after I blogged. It's worth watching and in line with my own thoughts:

A contruct as our President

Friday Quick Hitters - 8/2/2024

It's Friday afternoon, and I'm short on time. Lemme just toss a couple of things out there:

 

Look ma, no votes!

1. Vice President Kamala Harris reportedly became the Democratic Party's Presidential Nominee today. The party that is saving or protecting democracy (oh, I forgot, it's freedom they're saving now, "saving democracy" wasn't polling well) has installed a person who hasn't answered reporters questions on anything about anything, whose appearances are only in front of friendlies, and only with a teleprompter. The nominee won no primaries. Nobody voted for her her for President in 2024 at all. Her staff is revising every one of her far left positions on every issue to something more palatable to a broader audience. But Dems and the media? All in! Who gives a shit if she's capable or competent?

2. Race is the third rail of politics for any conservative or Republican. If you don't conform to leftist racial orthodoxies, almost every question on race is the equivalent of the no right answer: "Do you still beat your wife?" For me, IDGAF if Harris is Black, Asian, Canadian, African American, or whatever the heck she's marketing herself as today, the bottom line is she is terrible on all of my most important issues: immigration, the economy, crime, foreign affairs, and 2A rights. And yes, she was the fucking border czar according to leftist media when it suited their narrative, now I'm supposed to be so goddamned stupid I don't remember. Talk to Joe, he's the one who don't remember.

3. Joe Biden is going, going, gone. The man is looney tunes and is is an embarrassment and a disgrace that he is still in office. He doesn't know where he is half the time, nor who he's talking to. He wanders lost at events and loses his train of thought 20x more often than your clothes dryer loses socks. Commander in Chief is living large in the cuckoo's nest.

4. Trump is NOT a conservative. He is a mid-stream moderate. This is why the GOP establishment hates him. If you want to know why Trump has swerved to the left/middle lately, I'll tell you, and it might not be what you think. The small tent, establishment, right wing of the GOP has abandoned him because he's not conservative enough for them. It seems they're intransigent, and he needs more votes. If he can't get them on the right, where the hell do they think he's going to turn? Dumbasses. You're pushing him leftward yourselves.

5. I like J.D. Vance. I have been closely watching politics for a long, long time. I'm here to tell you, no matter who Trump picked, the left/Dems and establishment/GOP would be engaged in the same screeching and howling. And a bunch of weirdos calling him weird is really weird.

Have a nice weekend.

When Trump Addressed NABJ and Other Stuff - 8/1/2024

ABC's Rachel Scott opened the interview by stringing every anti-Trump racial trope she could into her "question". Trump, as he is wont to do, fired back. The moral of the story is 'if you go full asshole on Trump, don't be shocked when he comes back at you just as aggressively, probably more so.'

There are several things I want to mention this morning, but first things first. I saw the entire interview Trump did yesterday with the National Association of Black Journalists. I give him credit. Considering the leftward lean of journalists in general, and the leftward lean of the Black community in our country, Trump went straight into a lion's den. Meanwhile, his opponent is using the same strategy as President Biden: teleprompters only, no Q&A from any journalists as yet, and certainly none from as hostile a group as this one was to Trump.

I'm glad that Trump didn't take any shit from her, but I do think he blew it on the "DEI hire" question. When asked if he considered Vice President Harris a DEI hire, he called her out for selling herself off as an Asian (Indian) woman, and now as a Black woman. Because she's half and half, I suppose she has the high ground on this, and I think he went all wrong in how he answered it.

President Biden seems to me to have called Vice President a DEI hire in a Memorial Day address this past May.

If I was to answer the same loaded question, I'd have said something like: "I don't know if she was a DEI hire. You'd have to ask Joe Biden that question. What I do know is that she isn't very good at her job. Her assignment to manage the border crisis has been a disaster. If we had a fair and impartial press, and she were held to the same level of scrutiny that Republicans are on the issues, especially the ones she's suddenly flip-flopping on, it would be obvious to everyone with eyes to see and ears to hear that she's not up to the job. Does that make her a DEI hire? I don't know. Only Joe Biden knows why he picked such an ineffective person as his Vice President."

Senator and Vice Presidential candidate J.D. Vance is in a bi-racial marriage and has bi-racial children. The trope the left is running on and on with about him is insanity. In other words, to be expected.

The second thing I want to mention is about the attacks on Trump's VP pick,  J.D. Vance. And I'm not going to waste a lot of space on it. It is simply this: The never-Trump wing of the GOP, the establishment bozos me and many others rejected which is why we have Trump in the first place were going to be dissatisfied with ANY person Trump selected is he chose someone other than one of their establishment types. Likewise, ANY GOP VP nominee is and was going to be attacked by the left.

The fact that the GOP establishment and Democrats don't like him gives me confidence he's a good pick.

A genetic male boxer, fighting in the women’s division in the Olympics, busted an Italian female boxer’s nose, leaving her crying and defeated in less than a minute.

This is far left lunacy. It can’t be defended. It can’t be explained away. And it can’t be undone. The woman who lost has had her dreams and efforts destroyed by far left lunacy. It’s asinine and stupid. I wish the victorious ‘woman’ could be put in the ring against the Olympic Italian male boxer in the same weight class and have their nose busted in the course of getting their ass handed to them.

Far left wokism. Some of you will be voting for it in November. Yeah, you will. You know you will. You’ll say you’re opposed to this stuff, but in the end you’ll vote against candidates who stand up against it and oppose it. The far left owns the whole of the left, yourselves included.