Polls - 8/8/2024

Do you understand how poll sampling works?

A lot of polls are misleading because we don't know what the sample is or was. It makes a big difference. Without overcomplicating things, here's a quick explanation. It is more complicated than this.

Let's say a district has voter registration and or likely voter representation that is 35% Republican, 37% Democrat, and 28% Other or Independent. The district is said to be D+2. That's the basic breakdown, and a D+2 poll should (there IS error) accurately reflect the voters in that town, county, or state. But if you can find it, you might learn the poll says it is D+5. Essentially, the pollster talked to 3% more Democrats than what actually comprises the population. Now imagine the result of the poll has Harris at 50% and Trump at 48%. Can we make any inference based on the D+2 vs. D+5? I think we can.

Graphic showing samples.

The name of phenomena is "oversampling". Sometimes it's done to a large extent, as much as 5 or 6 points higher in one direction or the other, than the actual voter base. Why? To influence you, the electorate, plain and simple. If I think my candidate is losing, I will get discouraged and be less enthusiastic. My candidate's opponent's supporters, on the other hand, feel a freshening wind under their sails, and as a result, their enthusiasm is high. Enthusiasm and lack of enthusiasm are contagious.

It's more complicated than this. For now, the idea is to question the accuracy of the polls we see, and to question the motives of each pollster.

The next time you see a poll, whether your candidate is ahead in it or behind, remember, some polls are accurate, some aren't, sometimes purposefully so. Polls are commissioned by or conducted by someone, most likely someone with a vested income in an outcome. This makes it suspect, and it ought to be treated as such.